Ultimate fund portfolio
The best choices for stable, long-term growth in five essential categories.
By Yuval Rosenberg, Fortune Magazine contributing writer
June 14 2007: 10:51 AM EDT
NEW YORK (Money Magazine) -- Chuck Royce oozes expertise. From his bespoke suits and bow ties, to his passion for handcrafted wooden boats, to his patrician bearing, the president and chief investment officer of Royce & Associates comes across as the kind of old Wall Street hand who set your grandparents up in their comfortable retirement.
Heck, he might well have. Royce, 67, has 43 years of experience, and he's steered his Pennsylvania Mutual fund to average annual gains of 16 percent since 1973.
A pioneer in small-company investing, he's such a legend that we've made him a model for our own stock portfolio (see "The Fortune 40").
And when you ask him about his duty to shareholders, he doesn't joke around. "I have a responsibility to run this money in the best possible way for the very long term," says Royce. "That is definitely on my mind."
In short, Royce is the kind of guy you want picking stocks for your retirement portfolio - if you're not going to do it yourself, that is.
And for those of us who aren't natural DIY-ers, turning the task over to professionals makes a lot of sense. (Quick quiz: Do you check stock quotes obsessively on your BlackBerry? Read 10-K filings in bed at night? Impress your friends by reciting P/E ratios from memory? No, no, and no? This strategy may be for you.)
With a diversified group of funds you can get the upside of equities without quite so much volatility, and leave the stress over quarterly earnings to unflappable types like Chuck.
To simplify things even further, for the past two years we've selected standouts in several basic categories - what we call the Ultimate Mutual Fund Portfolio.
The group is designed to produce robust long-term gains, but our choices (including Royce's fund) have delivered in the near term too.
The funds we assembled in 2005 averaged a one-year return of 16 percent, vs. 10 percent for the S&P 500 index.
Last year we updated our picks, and the portfolio returned 21.2 percent from June 7, 2006, through June 5 of this year, vs. 23.4 percent for the S&P (our four equity funds averaged a 24.2 percent return, and our capital preservation fund returned 9.2 percent).
Given that success, we kept the basic building blocks in place this year.
The anchor of our lineup remains a total-market index fund, which invests in companies of all sizes. To complement that core holding, we have an actively managed large-cap fund along with more specialized small-cap and international picks for diversification and return potential. There's also an alternative-asset fund for additional balance.
Of course, mutual funds aren't the only option if you don't like to trade individual stocks. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to grow in both numbers and assets (there are now over 500 ETFs with some $480 billion in assets in the U.S., according to State Street Global Advisors).
And each of our mutual fund choices is accompanied by an ETF alternative. Those exchange-traded funds - which feature low expenses and are tax-efficient - may be right for you, particularly if you're looking to invest a large lump sum in the market. But if you plan to invest periodically, the mutual funds listed here can help you steer clear of the trading commissions that can add up when buying ETFs.
Total stock market
Whether you choose mutual funds or ETFs, broad-based indexes still make for sensible core holdings.
Our choice in this category last year, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, remains an excellent option. But for investors looking to invest $10,000 or more, Fidelity Spartan Total Market Index (FSTMX (Charts) is even more appealing because it provides the same exposure and takes an even smaller cut of your money. (The expense ratio is just 0.10%.) The fund tracks the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 total market index and holds more than 3,000 stocks.
That blend has helped it post annualized gains of 11.2 percent a year over the past five years, more than a percentage point better than the large-cap-dominated S&P 500.
For ETF buyers, Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI (Charts) - a cousin of the mutual fund above - provides a broad basket of stocks on the cheap, with an expense ratio of 0.07 percent.
Large company stock
After years of being outperformed by small-cap stocks, large caps may finally be ready to reassert themselves as market leaders.
Over the past six months, the S&P 500 has gained 10.3 percent, edging out the 8.4 percent advance of the Russell 2000 small-cap index.
If that trend continues, the $4.5 billion Dreyfus Appreciation (DGAGX (Charts) fund should take off. We anticipated big gains for big caps when we added Dreyfus to our mix last year, but the fund has lagged behind the S&P 500 by three percentage points.
However, we still like veteran manager Fayez Sarofim's portfolio, which is heavy on blue chips such as Altria (Charts, Fortune 500) and Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500). Extremely low turnover and a modest 0.95 percent expense ratio add to our conviction.
For a corresponding ETF, the iShares S&P Global 100 Index (IOO (Charts) pulls together the largest multinational giants under one umbrella.
Small company stock
Not that you should abandon the pip-squeaks. Even if market momentum shifts to larger stocks, small caps can diversify a portfolio and improve long-term returns.
And Royce's Pennsylvania Mutual (PENNX (Charts) fund remains a standout. The $4.9 billion portfolio holds more than 400 small- and mid-cap stocks and has posted three-year annualized returns of nearly 19 percent.
As an ETF alternative, the low-fee Vanguard Small Cap Value (VBR (Charts) offers an attractive 1.8 percent dividend yield.
Foreign value
Investors chasing grande returns in overseas markets have flooded money into foreign funds in recent years.
Following the trend, our pick, Dodge & Cox International Stock (DODFX (Charts), has ballooned to more than $41 billion in assets since it launched in 2001. But its growth hasn't hindered performance. The Dodge & Cox managers have posted total returns of 28 percent annually over the past three years by loading up on value stocks such as French pharmaceutical leader Sanofi-Aventis and Finnish mobile-phone maker Nokia.
Our new pick for an ETF alternative is the Vanguard FTSE All-World (VEU (Charts) ex-US, which was launched in March and includes 2,200 stocks from nearly 50 countries.
Alternative assets
No matter how spread out your stock bets are, you shouldn't live by equities alone. Our choice for diversification is the Pimco All Asset fund (PASDX (Charts), which focuses on capital preservation and aims for a 5 percent real return (above inflation).
Manager Rob Arnott invests in everything from commodities to bonds to real estate investment trusts, and his fund offers a generous yield of 5.2 percent. Arnott recently had 17 percent of his portfolio stashed in ultrasafe Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS.
To mirror his position in Treasury bonds, investors who favor ETFs can buy the newly launched SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS (IPE (Charts).
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets
By Bree Fowler, AP Business Writer
Rental Car Companies Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets to Meet Increased Demand
NEW YORK (AP) -- The increased demand for "green" vehicles is spilling over to the rental car counter, where many more drivers will soon be able to choose a hybrid vehicle. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said Thursday it will spend $68 million to add 3,400 Toyota Prius hybrids to its fleets by 2008. And Avis Budget Group Inc. said this week it plans to make 1,000 hybrid Prius vehicles available for rent as early as next week.
Brian Chee, an automotive analyst for Autobytel.com's soon to be launched Web site MyRide.com, said that even with the fleet expansions, hybrid vehicles still represent a small part of rental car fleets.
"This is a first step," Chee said. "It'll be interesting to see if the rental car companies continue this. Like other companies, they're making a 'green' statement, and this is a good way to do it."
By replacing 1,000 of its ordinary rental cars with the gas-electric Prius models, Hertz said it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 3,000 tons per year.
"Today's announcement highlights the next step in what is already a multiyear effort by Hertz to promote environmental sustainability throughout the company," Mark Frissora, the company's chairman and chief executive, said at Thursday's announcement.
"As a global leader in car rentals, we recognize our unique opportunity and obligation to promote environmental practices and give our customers environmentally friendly options."
Hertz said its hybrid vehicles will be available for rent at 50 of the company's U.S. airport locations, with 100 of them reserved for its New York City fleet.
The stop-and-go flow of Manhattan traffic provides an ideal driving environment for the hybrids, allowing them to mainly operate off of their electric motors, the company said.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the greater availability of hybrid rental cars is in line with his city's goal to reduce its emissions by 30 percent by the year 2030.
"These hybrid cars really put Hertz in the driver's seat ... in meeting one of the greatest challenges of our time, which is global warming," Bloomberg told the gathering at the Museum of Natural History.
John Barrows, a spokesman for Avis, said this week his company will offer Prius hybrids in its California, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Washington, D.C., markets but may expand the locations in the future based on consumer demand.
Barrows said Avis also believes that the Prius rentals will not only appeal to travelers, but those interested in buying a hybrid.
"Obviously we have customers who want them," he said. "And there are other people out there who are interested in purchasing a hybrid but really want to check one out before buying one."
Chee, the automotive analyst, said the rentals offer Toyota Motor Corp. a chance to showcase the Prius, as well as give potential buyers a chance to decide if a hybrid is right for them.
"I do think it's a risky move for Toyota, because what they're saying is: 'Here's the car, here's how it drives, we stand by our power train, and we think it'll win people over,'" Chee said.
"It shows Toyota's confidence that it'll win over fans when they don't have to buy it."
Enterprise Rent-A-Car also operates a fleet of more than 3,000 hybrid vehicles, in addition to 41,000 flex-fuel cars and light trucks that can run on ethanol-based fuel, the company said.
Hertz Global Holdings Inc.: http://www.hertz.com
Avis Budget Group Inc.: http://www.avisbudgetgroup.com
Enterprise Rent-A-Car: http://www.enterprise.com
Rental Car Companies Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets to Meet Increased Demand
NEW YORK (AP) -- The increased demand for "green" vehicles is spilling over to the rental car counter, where many more drivers will soon be able to choose a hybrid vehicle. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said Thursday it will spend $68 million to add 3,400 Toyota Prius hybrids to its fleets by 2008. And Avis Budget Group Inc. said this week it plans to make 1,000 hybrid Prius vehicles available for rent as early as next week.
Brian Chee, an automotive analyst for Autobytel.com's soon to be launched Web site MyRide.com, said that even with the fleet expansions, hybrid vehicles still represent a small part of rental car fleets.
"This is a first step," Chee said. "It'll be interesting to see if the rental car companies continue this. Like other companies, they're making a 'green' statement, and this is a good way to do it."
By replacing 1,000 of its ordinary rental cars with the gas-electric Prius models, Hertz said it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 3,000 tons per year.
"Today's announcement highlights the next step in what is already a multiyear effort by Hertz to promote environmental sustainability throughout the company," Mark Frissora, the company's chairman and chief executive, said at Thursday's announcement.
"As a global leader in car rentals, we recognize our unique opportunity and obligation to promote environmental practices and give our customers environmentally friendly options."
Hertz said its hybrid vehicles will be available for rent at 50 of the company's U.S. airport locations, with 100 of them reserved for its New York City fleet.
The stop-and-go flow of Manhattan traffic provides an ideal driving environment for the hybrids, allowing them to mainly operate off of their electric motors, the company said.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the greater availability of hybrid rental cars is in line with his city's goal to reduce its emissions by 30 percent by the year 2030.
"These hybrid cars really put Hertz in the driver's seat ... in meeting one of the greatest challenges of our time, which is global warming," Bloomberg told the gathering at the Museum of Natural History.
John Barrows, a spokesman for Avis, said this week his company will offer Prius hybrids in its California, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Washington, D.C., markets but may expand the locations in the future based on consumer demand.
Barrows said Avis also believes that the Prius rentals will not only appeal to travelers, but those interested in buying a hybrid.
"Obviously we have customers who want them," he said. "And there are other people out there who are interested in purchasing a hybrid but really want to check one out before buying one."
Chee, the automotive analyst, said the rentals offer Toyota Motor Corp. a chance to showcase the Prius, as well as give potential buyers a chance to decide if a hybrid is right for them.
"I do think it's a risky move for Toyota, because what they're saying is: 'Here's the car, here's how it drives, we stand by our power train, and we think it'll win people over,'" Chee said.
"It shows Toyota's confidence that it'll win over fans when they don't have to buy it."
Enterprise Rent-A-Car also operates a fleet of more than 3,000 hybrid vehicles, in addition to 41,000 flex-fuel cars and light trucks that can run on ethanol-based fuel, the company said.
Hertz Global Holdings Inc.: http://www.hertz.com
Avis Budget Group Inc.: http://www.avisbudgetgroup.com
Enterprise Rent-A-Car: http://www.enterprise.com
Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets
AP
Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets
Thursday June 14, 9:26 pm ET
By Bree Fowler, AP Business Writer
Rental Car Companies Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets to Meet Increased Demand
NEW YORK (AP) -- The increased demand for "green" vehicles is spilling over to the rental car counter, where many more drivers will soon be able to choose a hybrid vehicle. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said Thursday it will spend $68 million to add 3,400 Toyota Prius hybrids to its fleets by 2008. And Avis Budget Group Inc. said this week it plans to make 1,000 hybrid Prius vehicles available for rent as early as next week.
Brian Chee, an automotive analyst for Autobytel.com's soon to be launched Web site MyRide.com, said that even with the fleet expansions, hybrid vehicles still represent a small part of rental car fleets.
"This is a first step," Chee said. "It'll be interesting to see if the rental car companies continue this. Like other companies, they're making a 'green' statement, and this is a good way to do it."
By replacing 1,000 of its ordinary rental cars with the gas-electric Prius models, Hertz said it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 3,000 tons per year.
"Today's announcement highlights the next step in what is already a multiyear effort by Hertz to promote environmental sustainability throughout the company," Mark Frissora, the company's chairman and chief executive, said at Thursday's announcement.
"As a global leader in car rentals, we recognize our unique opportunity and obligation to promote environmental practices and give our customers environmentally friendly options."
Hertz said its hybrid vehicles will be available for rent at 50 of the company's U.S. airport locations, with 100 of them reserved for its New York City fleet.
The stop-and-go flow of Manhattan traffic provides an ideal driving environment for the hybrids, allowing them to mainly operate off of their electric motors, the company said.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the greater availability of hybrid rental cars is in line with his city's goal to reduce its emissions by 30 percent by the year 2030.
"These hybrid cars really put Hertz in the driver's seat ... in meeting one of the greatest challenges of our time, which is global warming," Bloomberg told the gathering at the Museum of Natural History.
John Barrows, a spokesman for Avis, said this week his company will offer Prius hybrids in its California, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Washington, D.C., markets but may expand the locations in the future based on consumer demand.
Barrows said Avis also believes that the Prius rentals will not only appeal to travelers, but those interested in buying a hybrid.
"Obviously we have customers who want them," he said. "And there are other people out there who are interested in purchasing a hybrid but really want to check one out before buying one."
Chee, the automotive analyst, said the rentals offer Toyota Motor Corp. a chance to showcase the Prius, as well as give potential buyers a chance to decide if a hybrid is right for them.
"I do think it's a risky move for Toyota, because what they're saying is: 'Here's the car, here's how it drives, we stand by our power train, and we think it'll win people over,'" Chee said.
"It shows Toyota's confidence that it'll win over fans when they don't have to buy it."
Enterprise Rent-A-Car also operates a fleet of more than 3,000 hybrid vehicles, in addition to 41,000 flex-fuel cars and light trucks that can run on ethanol-based fuel, the company said.
Hertz Global Holdings Inc.: http://www.hertz.com
Avis Budget Group Inc.: http://www.avisbudgetgroup.com
Enterprise Rent-A-Car: http://www.enterprise.com
Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets
Thursday June 14, 9:26 pm ET
By Bree Fowler, AP Business Writer
Rental Car Companies Hertz, Avis Plan to Boost Hybrid Fleets to Meet Increased Demand
NEW YORK (AP) -- The increased demand for "green" vehicles is spilling over to the rental car counter, where many more drivers will soon be able to choose a hybrid vehicle. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. said Thursday it will spend $68 million to add 3,400 Toyota Prius hybrids to its fleets by 2008. And Avis Budget Group Inc. said this week it plans to make 1,000 hybrid Prius vehicles available for rent as early as next week.
Brian Chee, an automotive analyst for Autobytel.com's soon to be launched Web site MyRide.com, said that even with the fleet expansions, hybrid vehicles still represent a small part of rental car fleets.
"This is a first step," Chee said. "It'll be interesting to see if the rental car companies continue this. Like other companies, they're making a 'green' statement, and this is a good way to do it."
By replacing 1,000 of its ordinary rental cars with the gas-electric Prius models, Hertz said it will reduce carbon dioxide emissions by an estimated 3,000 tons per year.
"Today's announcement highlights the next step in what is already a multiyear effort by Hertz to promote environmental sustainability throughout the company," Mark Frissora, the company's chairman and chief executive, said at Thursday's announcement.
"As a global leader in car rentals, we recognize our unique opportunity and obligation to promote environmental practices and give our customers environmentally friendly options."
Hertz said its hybrid vehicles will be available for rent at 50 of the company's U.S. airport locations, with 100 of them reserved for its New York City fleet.
The stop-and-go flow of Manhattan traffic provides an ideal driving environment for the hybrids, allowing them to mainly operate off of their electric motors, the company said.
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the greater availability of hybrid rental cars is in line with his city's goal to reduce its emissions by 30 percent by the year 2030.
"These hybrid cars really put Hertz in the driver's seat ... in meeting one of the greatest challenges of our time, which is global warming," Bloomberg told the gathering at the Museum of Natural History.
John Barrows, a spokesman for Avis, said this week his company will offer Prius hybrids in its California, Portland, Ore., Seattle and Washington, D.C., markets but may expand the locations in the future based on consumer demand.
Barrows said Avis also believes that the Prius rentals will not only appeal to travelers, but those interested in buying a hybrid.
"Obviously we have customers who want them," he said. "And there are other people out there who are interested in purchasing a hybrid but really want to check one out before buying one."
Chee, the automotive analyst, said the rentals offer Toyota Motor Corp. a chance to showcase the Prius, as well as give potential buyers a chance to decide if a hybrid is right for them.
"I do think it's a risky move for Toyota, because what they're saying is: 'Here's the car, here's how it drives, we stand by our power train, and we think it'll win people over,'" Chee said.
"It shows Toyota's confidence that it'll win over fans when they don't have to buy it."
Enterprise Rent-A-Car also operates a fleet of more than 3,000 hybrid vehicles, in addition to 41,000 flex-fuel cars and light trucks that can run on ethanol-based fuel, the company said.
Hertz Global Holdings Inc.: http://www.hertz.com
Avis Budget Group Inc.: http://www.avisbudgetgroup.com
Enterprise Rent-A-Car: http://www.enterprise.com
Open letter to Pfizer's CEO
Open letter to Pfizer's CEO
Dear Jeff,
You made $11 million last year, you just fired 10,000 employees, and you got a 36% raise this year.
And that's the problem.
You can't cut back and fire ten thousand hardworking people, and tell them about the new management style you're bringing to the company, and then accept a 36% raise in base pay.
That makes you lose credibility. (And I'm not even taking into account how you fell flat on your face, trying to hype torcetrapib.)
Your predecessor was shipped out of Pfizer dressed in tar and feathers, holding his $200 million grab bag, to the sound of employees and shareholders chanting "Give it back, Hank." The WSJ even wrote an article with the headline "Off with their heads," based on Pfizer's executive pay for non-performance.
If you read what your employees are saying, such as this, you will realize you just lost their respect; they've stopped calling you Kindler and replaced that with Swindler.
And without those employees and their support, you are just one man, putting his legs into his pants, one at a time, like the rest of us.
Without the support of your employees, you will fail, just like your predecessor.
Jeff, please act like a leader: Don't accept the raise.
You already made $11.4 million in 2006. You can afford to do the right thing.
Dear Jeff,
You made $11 million last year, you just fired 10,000 employees, and you got a 36% raise this year.
And that's the problem.
You can't cut back and fire ten thousand hardworking people, and tell them about the new management style you're bringing to the company, and then accept a 36% raise in base pay.
That makes you lose credibility. (And I'm not even taking into account how you fell flat on your face, trying to hype torcetrapib.)
Your predecessor was shipped out of Pfizer dressed in tar and feathers, holding his $200 million grab bag, to the sound of employees and shareholders chanting "Give it back, Hank." The WSJ even wrote an article with the headline "Off with their heads," based on Pfizer's executive pay for non-performance.
If you read what your employees are saying, such as this, you will realize you just lost their respect; they've stopped calling you Kindler and replaced that with Swindler.
And without those employees and their support, you are just one man, putting his legs into his pants, one at a time, like the rest of us.
Without the support of your employees, you will fail, just like your predecessor.
Jeff, please act like a leader: Don't accept the raise.
You already made $11.4 million in 2006. You can afford to do the right thing.
A year of Google acquisitions that points towards the future
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG)'s recent spate of acquisitions is nothing to sneeze at -- the web search giant (and internet advertising colossus) seems to be getting bigger in size, breadth and depth by the second, to the fear of Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and many established industries from newspaper to radio. Google's intention, as I've said many times, is to become the largest advertising network on the planet, and the company is not leaving a single stone unturned in its quest to get there. With the billions Google has in the bank, along with marketable securities that it has ready to spend, the acquisition trail has not been light to the company. In fact, it's acquiring companies left and right -- some are high-profile deals while others are significant but small.
While not all of Google's acquisitions directly point to its goal of an all-powerful advertising behemoth, there are peripheral industries that produce acquisitions that are meant to help Google keep its stranglehold on the web browser and access to it where it can display its advertising, help connect buyers and sellers and take its traditional cut of the transaction. In fact, two of Google's largest acquisitions to date -- YouTube and DoubleClick -- are directly related to allowing the company to maintain its advertising grip while it expands its tentacles into any area that it can to allow for sustainable control over the face of advertising. One thing still slips past many: Google still makes virtually all of its money from web advertising. Make no mistake: protecting that is Google's #1 priority.
While it does that, though, Google's 11 company or technology purchases in the last year have helped the company fill gaps in its product portfolio for customers from offering web-based documents to integrating as many neat features into Google Earth as possible (which still makes a pittance in "pro" subscriptions). Interestingly, though, competitor Microsoft has made about 13 acquisitions during the same time period, with the most recent being aQuantive (a pure-play response to Google's huge advertising threat on the web).
While not all of Google's acquisitions directly point to its goal of an all-powerful advertising behemoth, there are peripheral industries that produce acquisitions that are meant to help Google keep its stranglehold on the web browser and access to it where it can display its advertising, help connect buyers and sellers and take its traditional cut of the transaction. In fact, two of Google's largest acquisitions to date -- YouTube and DoubleClick -- are directly related to allowing the company to maintain its advertising grip while it expands its tentacles into any area that it can to allow for sustainable control over the face of advertising. One thing still slips past many: Google still makes virtually all of its money from web advertising. Make no mistake: protecting that is Google's #1 priority.
While it does that, though, Google's 11 company or technology purchases in the last year have helped the company fill gaps in its product portfolio for customers from offering web-based documents to integrating as many neat features into Google Earth as possible (which still makes a pittance in "pro" subscriptions). Interestingly, though, competitor Microsoft has made about 13 acquisitions during the same time period, with the most recent being aQuantive (a pure-play response to Google's huge advertising threat on the web).
How to Remove Your Blog from Google’s Supplemental Index
How to Remove Your Blog from Google’s Supplemental Index
Posted By TJP on May 27, 2007
In order to keep this blog running at optimal performance, I dedicate my weekends to performing routine site maintenance. This includes checking whether or not Google properly indexes all of my blog’s pages.
To my astonishment, 79% of my pages list in Google’s supplemental index. Google stores either duplicate or less significant web pages in the supplemental index, instead of placing them in the normal index.
How Do I Check My Blog’s Index Statistics?
Use the Supplemental index tool over at Seologs.com.
How Do I Get my pages back into Google’s Index?
Download the Wordpress SEO cure plugin.
Extra Safety: Upload a Good Robots.txt File
To insure Google crawls and blocks specific files within your website/blog, make sure to upload a good robots.txt file. Not so Boring Life wrote a good post on getting your blog out of the supplemental index.
How many pages did you have listed in Google’s supplemental Index?
*Update: My new posts keep falling into Google’s supplemental index. Does anyone have SEO experience out there?
Posted By TJP on May 27, 2007
In order to keep this blog running at optimal performance, I dedicate my weekends to performing routine site maintenance. This includes checking whether or not Google properly indexes all of my blog’s pages.
To my astonishment, 79% of my pages list in Google’s supplemental index. Google stores either duplicate or less significant web pages in the supplemental index, instead of placing them in the normal index.
How Do I Check My Blog’s Index Statistics?
Use the Supplemental index tool over at Seologs.com.
How Do I Get my pages back into Google’s Index?
Download the Wordpress SEO cure plugin.
Extra Safety: Upload a Good Robots.txt File
To insure Google crawls and blocks specific files within your website/blog, make sure to upload a good robots.txt file. Not so Boring Life wrote a good post on getting your blog out of the supplemental index.
How many pages did you have listed in Google’s supplemental Index?
*Update: My new posts keep falling into Google’s supplemental index. Does anyone have SEO experience out there?
UPDATE 1-EU says Google data retention limit "good step"
LUXEMBOURG, June 13 (Reuters) - Google Inc's. decision to scale back how long it keeps personally identifiable data accumulated from its Web users is "a good step", the European Union's top security official said on Wednesday.
The world's top provider of Web search services said this week it was ready to curtail the time it stored user data to a year and a half, seeking to mollify an EU watchdog that has questioned its privacy policies.
That was the low end of an 18- to 24-month period it had originally proposed to regulators in March.
"I think it is indeed a good step," EU Justice and Security Commissioner Franco Frattini told a news conference in Luxembourg.
"It is good to see Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) trying to meet our expectations," he said, also welcoming Google's announcement to explore ways to redesign cookies and reduce their expiration.
The European Union data watchdog, made up of national data protection supervisors of the bloc's 27 member states, said in May that Google seemed to be failing to respect EU privacy rules and asked for clarification before its next meeting in mid-June.
It is an advisory body which is independent from the European Commission.
Each time a Google user searches the Web, the company gathers information about that customer's tastes, interests and beliefs that could potentially be used by third parties such as advertisers. Google shares general user statistics but is adamant it never shares personal data outside the company.
"Retention of personal data was from the very beginning one concern of the European Commission," Frattini said.
The world's top provider of Web search services said this week it was ready to curtail the time it stored user data to a year and a half, seeking to mollify an EU watchdog that has questioned its privacy policies.
That was the low end of an 18- to 24-month period it had originally proposed to regulators in March.
"I think it is indeed a good step," EU Justice and Security Commissioner Franco Frattini told a news conference in Luxembourg.
"It is good to see Google (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) trying to meet our expectations," he said, also welcoming Google's announcement to explore ways to redesign cookies and reduce their expiration.
The European Union data watchdog, made up of national data protection supervisors of the bloc's 27 member states, said in May that Google seemed to be failing to respect EU privacy rules and asked for clarification before its next meeting in mid-June.
It is an advisory body which is independent from the European Commission.
Each time a Google user searches the Web, the company gathers information about that customer's tastes, interests and beliefs that could potentially be used by third parties such as advertisers. Google shares general user statistics but is adamant it never shares personal data outside the company.
"Retention of personal data was from the very beginning one concern of the European Commission," Frattini said.
EBay pulls U.S. ads from Google AdWords network
LOS ANGELES, June 13 (Reuters) - Online auctioneer eBay Inc. (EBAY.O: Quote, Profile , Research) has pulled its advertising from search company Google Inc.'s (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) AdWords network in the United States, an eBay spokesman said on Wednesday.
The spokesman added that the move was part of a marketing experiment.
The spokesman added that the move was part of a marketing experiment.
CNN, YouTube to co-sponsor presidential debate
LOS ANGELES, June 13 (Reuters) - Time Warner Inc.'s (TWX.N: Quote, Profile , Research) CNN and Google Inc.'s (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) YouTube said on Wednesday they will co-sponsor upcoming Democratic and Republican presidential debates, enabling people to submit questions to candidates via videos sent through the YouTube online video community.
YouTube and CNN will first co-sponsor a debate among the eight Democratic presidential candidates on July 23 in South Carolina. The candidates will assemble on a stage to answer questions submitted by ordinary people via videos through YouTube.
CNN anchor Anderson Cooper will act as the moderator between the viewers and the candidates.
YouTube and CNN will first co-sponsor a debate among the eight Democratic presidential candidates on July 23 in South Carolina. The candidates will assemble on a stage to answer questions submitted by ordinary people via videos through YouTube.
CNN anchor Anderson Cooper will act as the moderator between the viewers and the candidates.
Google Shanghai R&D centre to open at end June
SHANGHAI, June 14 (Reuters) - Google Inc.'s (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile , Research) engineering research centre in Shanghai will open towards the end of June, a company spokeswoman said on Thursday. The centre -- to be co-headed by Wang Jing, who previously worked in R&D at eBay Inc. (EBAY.O: Quote, Profile , Research), and by Yang Wenluo, who worked at Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile , Research) -- will start operating on June 25, Jin Cui said in an e-mail response to a Reuters inquiry.
Theft Rising at U.S. Wal-Mart Stores
Theft Rising at U.S. Wal-Mart StoresThursday June 14, 3:45 am ET By Anne D'Innocenzio and Marcus Kabel, AP Business Writers
Wal-Mart Struggling With Rising Loss From Shoplifting and Employee Theft at Its U.S. Stores
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shoppers at Wal-Mart stores across America are loading carts with merchandise -- maybe a flat-screen TV, a few DVDs and a six-pack of beer -- and strolling out without paying. Employees also are helping themselves to goods they haven't paid for.
ADVERTISEMENT
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The world's largest retailer is saying little about these kinds of thefts, but its recent public disclosures that it is experiencing an increase in so-called shrinkage at its U.S. stores suggests that inventory losses due to shoplifting, employee theft, paperwork errors and supplier fraud could be worsening.
The hit is likely to rise to more than $3 billion this year for Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which generated sales of $348.6 billion last year, according to retail consultant Burt Flickinger III.
Flickinger and other analysts say the increase in theft may be tied to Wal-Mart's highly publicized decision last year to no longer prosecute minor cases of shoplifting in order to focus on organized shoplifting rings. Former employees also say staffing levels, including security personnel, have been reduced, making it easier for theft to occur. And a union-backed group critical of the retailer's personnel policies contends general worker discontent is playing a role.
Wal-Mart declined to offer any explanations for the rise in losses, but denied it has cut security staff and said employee morale is rising rather than falling.
Although Wal-Mart declined to reveal any details, analysts suspect Wal-Mart -- which for years had a theft loss rate that was half that of its peers -- is getting closer to the industrywide average. Theft is a big problem for all retailers, costing them $41.6 billion last year, according to a joint study released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation and the University of Florida. The study found that the theft rate as a percentage of sales ticked upward slightly to 1.61 percent of sales in 2006 from 1.60 percent in 2005.
Whatever the cause, such theft -- which late founder Sam Walton once called one of retailers' top profit killers -- adds one more challenge when Wal-Mart is already struggling with sluggish sales at its established stores due to an overall economic slowdown as well as its own stumbles in its home and apparel merchandising strategies.
Eduardo Castro-Wright, president and CEO of Wal-Mart's U.S. store division, briefly acknowledged the theft problem in a mid-May conference call with analysts. He cited shrinkage as well as increased markdowns and higher inventory for dragging down first-quarter profit margins.
"We are concerned about shrinkage and are investigating the cause and are taking steps to correct it," Castro-Wright said. Company officials won't comment on those countermeasures.
The company also said in a June 1 filing with federal securities regulators that the gross profit margin for its Wal-Mart Stores segment fell by 0.1 percentage points in the first quarter due in part to "higher inventory shrinkage."
John Simley, a Wal-Mart spokesman, declined to elaborate. He would say only that the company's theft losses as a percentage of sales is "better than our industry peer groups."
Analysts say it's significant that the company has publicly disclosed that theft is becoming a problem. "It is getting to the point of being material," said Richard Hastings, vice president and senior retail sector analyst at Bernard Sands. Securities regulations require companies to alert shareholders to significant corporate developments that could affect the value of their holdings.
Such pilferage as a percentage of sales has been declining since the mid-1990s as retailers have invested in new technology such as closed circuit TVs, according to Richard Hollinger, professor of criminology at the University of Florida.
About 47 percent of the dollars lost came from employee theft, while shoplifting accounted for about 32 percent, according to the National Retail Federation report. Administrative errors account for 14 percent, while supplier fraud accounts for 4 percent. The remaining 3 percent is unaccounted for.
In one of the more brazen employee thefts, a man wearing dark clothing and a ski mask entered a Port Clinton, Ohio, Wal-Mart store in January at midnight unnoticed by employees and stole $45,000 from the store safe. The store's night manager, Dana Walker, 30, was later arrested for the crime. He became a suspect because he knew the combination to the safe, police said.
The company's vociferous critic WakeUpWalMart.com, funded by the United Food and Commercial Workers which has for years tried to organize the retailer's workers, publicized the company's decision last year to relax its zero-tolerance policy on shoplifting. The new policy seeks prosecutions of first-time offenders only if they are between ages 18 to 65 and steal at least $25 worth of merchandise.
That change may have emboldened some folks to shoplift, said Mark Doyle, president of Jack L. Hayes International, a retail consultancy on loss prevention.
WakeUpWalMart.com and some former employees said Wal-Mart may also have been trying to appease complaints by some police departments that its stores tied up police with too many shoplifting calls. Wal-Mart has denied that.
Wal-Mart also may have been spooked by worries about lawsuits from wrongful death, unlawful imprisonment and other legal issues related to aggressively chasing down shoplifters. In March, Wal-Mart agreed to pay $750,000 to the family of a suspected shoplifter who suffocated to death as loss prevention workers held him down in a parking lot outside a store in Atascocita, Texas. The shoplifter died in August 2005 in a parking lot, according to published reports.
The change in policy came at the same time the company began using more part-time workers -- in part because of a new scheduling system that matches staffing more closely to peak shopping hours -- and shifting security personnel, analysts and critics say. That has left the discount chain without an experienced and loyal staff to monitor what's strolling out its back and front doors, analysts and some former employees supplied by WakeUpWalMart.com said.
"The business is being run by bean counters. I am shocked at the Spartan level of staffing," said Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resources Group. He added, "There are also morale issues. Workers feel that the company is taking care of itself."
While Wal-Mart denies that it has cut anti-theft jobs overall, it said it has adjusted staffing to put more personnel in stores in high-crime areas and fewer in stores with less trouble.
However, Dan Meyer, a former district loss prevention supervisor for several Wal-Mart stores in New Jersey, disputes that. Meyer, who said he accepted a buyout last fall after almost 12 years with the company, said Wal-Mart reduced the number of loss prevention staff in each store last year and redesigned their jobs in a way that was less active and more administrative.
"That's why shrinkage is up," he said.
Meyer said he averaged 13 apprehensions a month during most of his time at Wal-Mart. That number dropped to three to four a month in the months before he left last October. Meyer said his totals dropped because there were fewer security staff and less support from his managers for aggressively rooting out theft.
WakeUpWalMart.com has linked rising theft to its claims that the company offers skimpy pay and benefits. Wal-Mart also faces a class-action lawsuit alleging female workers were passed over for men in pay and promotions.
"I am not the type to steal, but because we are so mistreated, when I saw things I just didn't do anything," said Gina Tuley, a former Wal-Mart bakery worker, who quit her job at the Seagoville, Texas, store in March. A big complaint was that her hours had been cut, reducing her take-home pay.
Wal-Mart defends its pay as competitive and its health care coverage as better than most retailers, and has denied gender discrimination.
Simley said an April survey of employees that showed rising job satisfaction suggests Tuley's attitude does not represent most Wal-Mart associates.
Even so, several former associates said in interviews that their bonuses have declined because of the rise in inventory losses. Wal-Mart's Simley disputes these claims, saying theft reduction was dropped from the bonus formula about a dozen years ago. It was Walton's idea to tie associates' bonuses to their stores' pilferage levels to give them a vested interest in keeping theft in check.
Tuley said her bonus last year was $300, down from $800 the previous year.
Still, she said, "People would walk out with bags of merchandise ... I heard the alarms go off and people wouldn't even look," she added.
Business Writer Marcus Kabel contributed reporting for this story from Springfield, Mo.
Wal-Mart Struggling With Rising Loss From Shoplifting and Employee Theft at Its U.S. Stores
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shoppers at Wal-Mart stores across America are loading carts with merchandise -- maybe a flat-screen TV, a few DVDs and a six-pack of beer -- and strolling out without paying. Employees also are helping themselves to goods they haven't paid for.
ADVERTISEMENT
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The world's largest retailer is saying little about these kinds of thefts, but its recent public disclosures that it is experiencing an increase in so-called shrinkage at its U.S. stores suggests that inventory losses due to shoplifting, employee theft, paperwork errors and supplier fraud could be worsening.
The hit is likely to rise to more than $3 billion this year for Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which generated sales of $348.6 billion last year, according to retail consultant Burt Flickinger III.
Flickinger and other analysts say the increase in theft may be tied to Wal-Mart's highly publicized decision last year to no longer prosecute minor cases of shoplifting in order to focus on organized shoplifting rings. Former employees also say staffing levels, including security personnel, have been reduced, making it easier for theft to occur. And a union-backed group critical of the retailer's personnel policies contends general worker discontent is playing a role.
Wal-Mart declined to offer any explanations for the rise in losses, but denied it has cut security staff and said employee morale is rising rather than falling.
Although Wal-Mart declined to reveal any details, analysts suspect Wal-Mart -- which for years had a theft loss rate that was half that of its peers -- is getting closer to the industrywide average. Theft is a big problem for all retailers, costing them $41.6 billion last year, according to a joint study released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation and the University of Florida. The study found that the theft rate as a percentage of sales ticked upward slightly to 1.61 percent of sales in 2006 from 1.60 percent in 2005.
Whatever the cause, such theft -- which late founder Sam Walton once called one of retailers' top profit killers -- adds one more challenge when Wal-Mart is already struggling with sluggish sales at its established stores due to an overall economic slowdown as well as its own stumbles in its home and apparel merchandising strategies.
Eduardo Castro-Wright, president and CEO of Wal-Mart's U.S. store division, briefly acknowledged the theft problem in a mid-May conference call with analysts. He cited shrinkage as well as increased markdowns and higher inventory for dragging down first-quarter profit margins.
"We are concerned about shrinkage and are investigating the cause and are taking steps to correct it," Castro-Wright said. Company officials won't comment on those countermeasures.
The company also said in a June 1 filing with federal securities regulators that the gross profit margin for its Wal-Mart Stores segment fell by 0.1 percentage points in the first quarter due in part to "higher inventory shrinkage."
John Simley, a Wal-Mart spokesman, declined to elaborate. He would say only that the company's theft losses as a percentage of sales is "better than our industry peer groups."
Analysts say it's significant that the company has publicly disclosed that theft is becoming a problem. "It is getting to the point of being material," said Richard Hastings, vice president and senior retail sector analyst at Bernard Sands. Securities regulations require companies to alert shareholders to significant corporate developments that could affect the value of their holdings.
Such pilferage as a percentage of sales has been declining since the mid-1990s as retailers have invested in new technology such as closed circuit TVs, according to Richard Hollinger, professor of criminology at the University of Florida.
About 47 percent of the dollars lost came from employee theft, while shoplifting accounted for about 32 percent, according to the National Retail Federation report. Administrative errors account for 14 percent, while supplier fraud accounts for 4 percent. The remaining 3 percent is unaccounted for.
In one of the more brazen employee thefts, a man wearing dark clothing and a ski mask entered a Port Clinton, Ohio, Wal-Mart store in January at midnight unnoticed by employees and stole $45,000 from the store safe. The store's night manager, Dana Walker, 30, was later arrested for the crime. He became a suspect because he knew the combination to the safe, police said.
The company's vociferous critic WakeUpWalMart.com, funded by the United Food and Commercial Workers which has for years tried to organize the retailer's workers, publicized the company's decision last year to relax its zero-tolerance policy on shoplifting. The new policy seeks prosecutions of first-time offenders only if they are between ages 18 to 65 and steal at least $25 worth of merchandise.
That change may have emboldened some folks to shoplift, said Mark Doyle, president of Jack L. Hayes International, a retail consultancy on loss prevention.
WakeUpWalMart.com and some former employees said Wal-Mart may also have been trying to appease complaints by some police departments that its stores tied up police with too many shoplifting calls. Wal-Mart has denied that.
Wal-Mart also may have been spooked by worries about lawsuits from wrongful death, unlawful imprisonment and other legal issues related to aggressively chasing down shoplifters. In March, Wal-Mart agreed to pay $750,000 to the family of a suspected shoplifter who suffocated to death as loss prevention workers held him down in a parking lot outside a store in Atascocita, Texas. The shoplifter died in August 2005 in a parking lot, according to published reports.
The change in policy came at the same time the company began using more part-time workers -- in part because of a new scheduling system that matches staffing more closely to peak shopping hours -- and shifting security personnel, analysts and critics say. That has left the discount chain without an experienced and loyal staff to monitor what's strolling out its back and front doors, analysts and some former employees supplied by WakeUpWalMart.com said.
"The business is being run by bean counters. I am shocked at the Spartan level of staffing," said Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resources Group. He added, "There are also morale issues. Workers feel that the company is taking care of itself."
While Wal-Mart denies that it has cut anti-theft jobs overall, it said it has adjusted staffing to put more personnel in stores in high-crime areas and fewer in stores with less trouble.
However, Dan Meyer, a former district loss prevention supervisor for several Wal-Mart stores in New Jersey, disputes that. Meyer, who said he accepted a buyout last fall after almost 12 years with the company, said Wal-Mart reduced the number of loss prevention staff in each store last year and redesigned their jobs in a way that was less active and more administrative.
"That's why shrinkage is up," he said.
Meyer said he averaged 13 apprehensions a month during most of his time at Wal-Mart. That number dropped to three to four a month in the months before he left last October. Meyer said his totals dropped because there were fewer security staff and less support from his managers for aggressively rooting out theft.
WakeUpWalMart.com has linked rising theft to its claims that the company offers skimpy pay and benefits. Wal-Mart also faces a class-action lawsuit alleging female workers were passed over for men in pay and promotions.
"I am not the type to steal, but because we are so mistreated, when I saw things I just didn't do anything," said Gina Tuley, a former Wal-Mart bakery worker, who quit her job at the Seagoville, Texas, store in March. A big complaint was that her hours had been cut, reducing her take-home pay.
Wal-Mart defends its pay as competitive and its health care coverage as better than most retailers, and has denied gender discrimination.
Simley said an April survey of employees that showed rising job satisfaction suggests Tuley's attitude does not represent most Wal-Mart associates.
Even so, several former associates said in interviews that their bonuses have declined because of the rise in inventory losses. Wal-Mart's Simley disputes these claims, saying theft reduction was dropped from the bonus formula about a dozen years ago. It was Walton's idea to tie associates' bonuses to their stores' pilferage levels to give them a vested interest in keeping theft in check.
Tuley said her bonus last year was $300, down from $800 the previous year.
Still, she said, "People would walk out with bags of merchandise ... I heard the alarms go off and people wouldn't even look," she added.
Business Writer Marcus Kabel contributed reporting for this story from Springfield, Mo.
Maximizing Wealth
Maximizing Wealth
If you're looking for maximum return, try this portfolio:25% SSO 25% DDM5% Short Naked Puts VTI/IOO/EWJ/VPL (I think these might go higher). A naked put occurs when you have not shorted the underlying stock. I recommend naked puts over covered puts.5% Puts on Europe or China ETFs (I think these might be in a bubble, especially Italy).Necessary Deposit with Broker to cover losses (invest either in T-Bills or balanced funds)40% VALIX or T-Bills (you must do a cash basis short put to avoid a margin call; it means that you must keep on deposit the maximum loss for the short put which is company or market bankruptcy). Writing naked puts is bullish. While your only income is premium income (not the stock appreciation), options are only exercised when the price of a put falls below a strike price or when the price of a call rises above the strike price.or if in a retirement account:40% SSO40% DDM20% VTI or VTI covered call (your income portion of the portfolio). Covered call writing are the only options allowed in a retirement account. Similar to an uncovered put, but covered calls are bearish as you're giving up any potential upside in VTI for premium income. If you wish to do another covered call after the first one is exercised against you, it could be a lot more expensive to buy, thus you're bearish (betting the stock price will fall). In order for a covered call to be useful, you must own 100 shares of stock per contract. If you want to be fully invested in the market, this is how I'd invest:25% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI)10% Vanguard Small Cap Stock (VBK)10% Vanguard Mid Cap Stock (VO)10% microcap stock (PZI)12.5% Japan (EWJ)15.0% Vanguard Pacific Index (VPL) - 27.5% total in the Pacific region12.5% Vanguard Europe (VGK) - 12.5% in Europe (consider it to be a bubble)5% Emerging Markets (VWO or EEM) or35% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI)10% Vanguard Small Cap Stock (VBK)10% Vanguard Mid Cap Stock (VO)20% Vanguard Pacific Index (VPL)20% Vanguard Europe (VGK)5% Emerging Markets (VWO) or 5% microcap stock (PZI)If you're somewhat bearish in the market, try this portfolio:20-30% AGG/LQD/TLT40-50% VTI5% VO5% VBK10% VPL10% VGKor25-30% FGBLX25-30% FBALX10-20% VTI10% VGK10% VPL5% VBK5% VO
If you're looking for maximum return, try this portfolio:25% SSO 25% DDM5% Short Naked Puts VTI/IOO/EWJ/VPL (I think these might go higher). A naked put occurs when you have not shorted the underlying stock. I recommend naked puts over covered puts.5% Puts on Europe or China ETFs (I think these might be in a bubble, especially Italy).Necessary Deposit with Broker to cover losses (invest either in T-Bills or balanced funds)40% VALIX or T-Bills (you must do a cash basis short put to avoid a margin call; it means that you must keep on deposit the maximum loss for the short put which is company or market bankruptcy). Writing naked puts is bullish. While your only income is premium income (not the stock appreciation), options are only exercised when the price of a put falls below a strike price or when the price of a call rises above the strike price.or if in a retirement account:40% SSO40% DDM20% VTI or VTI covered call (your income portion of the portfolio). Covered call writing are the only options allowed in a retirement account. Similar to an uncovered put, but covered calls are bearish as you're giving up any potential upside in VTI for premium income. If you wish to do another covered call after the first one is exercised against you, it could be a lot more expensive to buy, thus you're bearish (betting the stock price will fall). In order for a covered call to be useful, you must own 100 shares of stock per contract. If you want to be fully invested in the market, this is how I'd invest:25% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI)10% Vanguard Small Cap Stock (VBK)10% Vanguard Mid Cap Stock (VO)10% microcap stock (PZI)12.5% Japan (EWJ)15.0% Vanguard Pacific Index (VPL) - 27.5% total in the Pacific region12.5% Vanguard Europe (VGK) - 12.5% in Europe (consider it to be a bubble)5% Emerging Markets (VWO or EEM) or35% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index (VTI)10% Vanguard Small Cap Stock (VBK)10% Vanguard Mid Cap Stock (VO)20% Vanguard Pacific Index (VPL)20% Vanguard Europe (VGK)5% Emerging Markets (VWO) or 5% microcap stock (PZI)If you're somewhat bearish in the market, try this portfolio:20-30% AGG/LQD/TLT40-50% VTI5% VO5% VBK10% VPL10% VGKor25-30% FGBLX25-30% FBALX10-20% VTI10% VGK10% VPL5% VBK5% VO
Thoughts on Shorting the Chinese Market
Thoughts on Shorting the Chinese Market
I was thinking that PGJ, FXI, or GXC could be sold short 100 shares to short the Chinese market and you'd buy 1 call option contract to hedge against any negative upside. For one with not much capital, I like PGJ the best.I also like considering to short the Italian market by shorting EWI and buying a call option to hedge upside risk.
I was thinking that PGJ, FXI, or GXC could be sold short 100 shares to short the Chinese market and you'd buy 1 call option contract to hedge against any negative upside. For one with not much capital, I like PGJ the best.I also like considering to short the Italian market by shorting EWI and buying a call option to hedge upside risk.
TLHO shell with low float
TLHO shell with low float
6/8/07:Bid: .035Ask: .045Closed at .044 (25% up from .035)Tough to get in at .035 but got a little. Low float, sooner or later the pumper takes this and moves it back to the teens area.
6/8/07:Bid: .035Ask: .045Closed at .044 (25% up from .035)Tough to get in at .035 but got a little. Low float, sooner or later the pumper takes this and moves it back to the teens area.
INTRODUCTION to ORS
INTRODUCTION to ORS
This will be alot of info....so please take your time reading through it. The info is on a chinese telecommunication stock.Orsus Xelent Technologies is a profitable Beijing-based designer of economically priced feature-rich mobile phones. The Company’s business encompasses the design of mobile phone and digital circuits, software development, R&D of mobile phone integration technology, as well as mobile phone quality control and project management. Orsus Xelent management is very impressive with their aggressive business strategy, their long-term vision for the Company and their ability to adapt to changing market trends. Their expertise in both hardware and software development is impressive. Since its business inception in April 2004, Orsus phones have sold more than 600,000 units, which accounted for over one percent of the total cellular phone market in the People’s Republic of China. Today, Orsus offers eleven mobile phone models with high performance-to-price ratios to satisfy its customers’ needs. Orsus owns its own proprietary platform, named Spreadrum and MTK, which enabled the Company to develop a series of low cost mobile phones with innovative functions. Orsus’ products have received several awards for their innovative features and design. INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Explosive Revenue Growth: Orsus experienced a stunning 457% and 776% comparable quarter revenue increase in Q1 and Q2 of FY2006 respectively. Revenue in Q3 of FY2006 also increased 56% compared to the same period in FY2005. Its revenues are anticipated to grow at an annually compounded rate of 30% over the next 3 years, while its EPS is anticipated to grow at an annually compounded rate of 70% during the same period. 200% Earnings Growth: Third Quarter 2006 net income was $2.3 million, compared to $1.9 million for the same period in 2005 and EPS of 0.08 cents, compared to EPS of 0.07 cents for the same period in 2005. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006 net income was 0.16 cents per share compared to 0.05 cents per share for the same period in 2005, representing a 200% increase. Platform Technology Provides Important Competitive Advantage: Orsus has developed a unique software platform for the PRC’s Ministry of Commerce that could result in a recurring revenue stream of more than $60 million annually within the next 24-36 months. January 11th Orsus Xelent Announces Cooperation Intent Agreement for the first 20,000 Handsets From the State Administration for Industry and Commerce (SAIC), Hebei Province of the People's Republic of China (PRC) This software integration technology will position them as more than a pure cell-phone commodity player giving them an edge over many of their competitors. FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Strong Revenue Growth: Orsus experienced sharp growth in the first half of FY06. Revenue reached $8.3 million and $17 million respectively in the first and second quarters of FY06, representing a 457% and 776% increase compared to the same period in FY05. This dramatic increase is can be attributed to distribution to new markets and CDMA handset sales. The proliferation of the first half of FY06, served as a primary growth driver for the Company. Overseas sales amounted to $8.5 million, accounted for nearly fifty percent of Q2 FY06 revenue, and approximately thirty-two percent of the first half of FY06 revenue. Meanwhile, sales of CDMA handsets reached approximately $7 million in the first half of FY06 compared to only $1 million in the entire FY05. Sales of CDMA handsets continued to ramp up in Q3 of FY06, to $11 million, representing 55% of Q3 revenue. Q3 FY06 revenue reached $20 million, representing a 55% increase compared to the same period in FY05, and a 20% increase compared to the previous quarter. Revenues increased by 176% for the nine months ended September 30 compared to the same period in 2005. In addition, the revenue growth can be partly attributed to a heightened demand for GSM based phones as a result of telecommunication industry reform in China, which in turn led to a reduction of monthly charges for GSM based phones. Orsus experienced a decline in revenues in FY2005. Revenues decreased to $28.7 million in FY05, a fifty-nine percent decrease compared to the same period in FY04. The decrease was primarily due to the proliferation of a black market for cell phones as well as fierce competition in the RPC mobile phone market. In recent years, mobile phone manufactures invested heavily in R&D and production capacity to speed up launches of new mobile phones. As a result, a product’s lifecycle has become shorter resulting in an oversupply of old models. In addition, competition from counterfeit products also adversely affected sales volume and contributed to an overall difficult market environment. Orsus’ has demonstrated an ability to adopt new strategies quickly and effectively to maneuver through difficult situations. The Company developed a new platform SpreadTrum and MTK in the second half of the 2006, which allowed Orsus to manufacture a series of low cost phones with advanced features. As a result, revenue increased from $3.4 million in the first half of FY05 to $25.2 million in the second half of 2005, representing an 88.02% in FY05 revenues. 200% Earnings Growth for Nine Months Ended September 30 2006 Third Quarter 2006 net income was $2.3 million, compared to $1.9 million for the same period in 2005 and EPS of 0.08 cents, compared to EPS of 0.07 cents for the same period in 2005. For the nine months ended September 30, 2006 net income was 0.16 cents per share compared to 0.05 cents per share for the same period in 2005, representing a 200% increase. VALUATION AND CONCLUSION We believe that Orsus is attractively valued compared to other companies in the industry. It is currently trading at a P/E (ttm) of 11.2 compared to the industry average P/E of 20.7 times. It has a P/B (mrq)of 3.7 compared to the industry average of 4.9. Orsus has a PEG ratio of 0.46 which indicates that the Company’s growth potential is higher than the market’s expectation. The Company’s revenue is expected to grow at a minimum annual compounded rate of 30% in the next three years, while EPS is expected to grow at a compounded annual rate of 71% on a fully-diluted basis over the next three years. We believe that Orsus has the potential to grow in excess of our estimates if they continue to penetrate overseas markets and execute on several large market opportunities, such as their specialized software applications for the SAIC of the PRC. Orsus may also have an opportunity to secure a contract with the PRC to provide cell-phone units for 3 million automobiles. These units would provide an important security link for the 2008 Beijing Olympics by transmitting data on a real-time basis to law enforcement officials in the event of a security threat. A contract of this magnitude could drive revenues far beyond our estimates. Orsus anticipates generating $120 million in annual recurring revenue by FY09 from its integrated software solutions.Important Disclosure: This information is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and does not purport to be complete. As such, the information should not be construed as advice designed to meet particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. In the purview of Section 17(b) of the Securities Act of 1993 and in the interest of full disclosure, we call the readers attention to the fact that DreamTick-IR is an investor relations. DreamTick-IR has been compensated $5,000 cash a month for a 1 year period along with 50,000 stock options at $4.00 for the promotion of TSTC. DreamTick-IR has been compensated $4000 cash a month for a 1 year period along with 100,000 stock options at $2.00 for the promotion of ORS. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options or equities. No representation is being made that any account/stock will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed. Futures, Options and Equities trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures, options or equity markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. The past hypothetical or historical performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a serious risk of loss in trading futures, options and equities
Market Data
Market Data
Market data is the current trading information for the market, and includes information such as the current prices, the most recently traded price, and the number of available and most recently traded contracts (volume). Market data originally comes from the exchange that provides the market (such as the CME for the ES futures market), but day traders usually receive the market data via their day trading brokerage.
Market data comes in two levels, with level 1 providing the basic information, and level 2 providing the basic information, plus some additional information. Which level of market data you require will depend upon your trading system, and whether or not it needs the additional information.
A description of the two levels of market data, and a discussion of when level 2 market data is required, are available in the market data glossary entry.
Market data is the current trading information for the market, and includes information such as the current prices, the most recently traded price, and the number of available and most recently traded contracts (volume). Market data originally comes from the exchange that provides the market (such as the CME for the ES futures market), but day traders usually receive the market data via their day trading brokerage.
Market data comes in two levels, with level 1 providing the basic information, and level 2 providing the basic information, plus some additional information. Which level of market data you require will depend upon your trading system, and whether or not it needs the additional information.
A description of the two levels of market data, and a discussion of when level 2 market data is required, are available in the market data glossary entry.
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Wednesday: Oil Inventories at 2:30 PM
Thursday : Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims at 12:30 PM, and New Home Sales at 2:00 PM
Friday : Existing Home Sales at 2:00 PM
Europe
Monday : UK Money Supply, Sterling Lending, and Public Sector Borrowing at 8:30 AM
Tuesday : EU Trade Balance, and German Economic Sentiment at 9:00 AM
Wednesday : BOE Minutes at 8:30 AM, and EU Industrial Orders at 9:00 AM
Thursday : German GDP at 6:00 AM, and German Business Climate at 8:00 AM
Asia
Tuesday : BOJ Minutes at 5:00 AM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Wednesday: Oil Inventories at 2:30 PM
Thursday : Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Claims at 12:30 PM, and New Home Sales at 2:00 PM
Friday : Existing Home Sales at 2:00 PM
Europe
Monday : UK Money Supply, Sterling Lending, and Public Sector Borrowing at 8:30 AM
Tuesday : EU Trade Balance, and German Economic Sentiment at 9:00 AM
Wednesday : BOE Minutes at 8:30 AM, and EU Industrial Orders at 9:00 AM
Thursday : German GDP at 6:00 AM, and German Business Climate at 8:00 AM
Asia
Tuesday : BOJ Minutes at 5:00 AM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
Trading Report - Zero Line Cross
Trading Report - Zero Line Cross
The zero line cross trading system had another profitable week last week. The results on the ZG (Gold futures market), with a 5 minute chart, were as follows :
Monday - The first trade was a short, and made up to 76 ticks profit. There were no further trades.
Tuesday - The first trade was a long, and was a losing trade. The second trade was a short, and made up to 41 ticks profit. The third trade was a long, and made up to 57 ticks profit. There were no further trades.
Wednesday - The first trade was a long, and was a losing trade. The second trade was a short, and made up to 125 ticks profit.
Thursday - The first trade was a short, and was a partial losing trade (-2 ticks). The second trade was a long, and was a partial losing trade (-7 ticks). The third trade was a short, and made up to 98 ticks profit.
Friday - The first trade was a long, and made up to 32 ticks. The second trade was a short, and made up to 13 ticks. The third trade was a long, and made up to 40 ticks.
Your exact amount of profit will vary depending upon your target and stop loss, but as an example, trading 1 contract, with a target of 25 ticks, and a 10 tick stop loss, the zero line cross trade would have made a profit of 136 ticks or $1,360.
If you would like more information about the zero line cross trading system, complete information can be found in the zero line cross tutorial.
The zero line cross trading system had another profitable week last week. The results on the ZG (Gold futures market), with a 5 minute chart, were as follows :
Monday - The first trade was a short, and made up to 76 ticks profit. There were no further trades.
Tuesday - The first trade was a long, and was a losing trade. The second trade was a short, and made up to 41 ticks profit. The third trade was a long, and made up to 57 ticks profit. There were no further trades.
Wednesday - The first trade was a long, and was a losing trade. The second trade was a short, and made up to 125 ticks profit.
Thursday - The first trade was a short, and was a partial losing trade (-2 ticks). The second trade was a long, and was a partial losing trade (-7 ticks). The third trade was a short, and made up to 98 ticks profit.
Friday - The first trade was a long, and made up to 32 ticks. The second trade was a short, and made up to 13 ticks. The third trade was a long, and made up to 40 ticks.
Your exact amount of profit will vary depending upon your target and stop loss, but as an example, trading 1 contract, with a target of 25 ticks, and a 10 tick stop loss, the zero line cross trade would have made a profit of 136 ticks or $1,360.
If you would like more information about the zero line cross trading system, complete information can be found in the zero line cross tutorial.
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Tuesday : Consumer Confidence at 2:00 PM
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 6:00 PM
Thursday : Initial Claims at 12:30 PM
Friday : Non Farm Payrolls, Personal Income and Spending, and Unemployment Rate at 12:30 PM, and ISM Manufacturing at 2:00 PM
Europe
Tuesday : EU Current Account at 8:00 AM, and German Consumer Price Index at 12:00 PM
Asia
Monday : Japan Unemployment Rate at 11:30 PM, and Retail Trade at 11:50 PM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Tuesday : Consumer Confidence at 2:00 PM
Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 6:00 PM
Thursday : Initial Claims at 12:30 PM
Friday : Non Farm Payrolls, Personal Income and Spending, and Unemployment Rate at 12:30 PM, and ISM Manufacturing at 2:00 PM
Europe
Tuesday : EU Current Account at 8:00 AM, and German Consumer Price Index at 12:00 PM
Asia
Monday : Japan Unemployment Rate at 11:30 PM, and Retail Trade at 11:50 PM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
May 28th Holiday
May 28th Holiday
The May 28th holiday in the US and Europe happens tomorrow, and all of the US and European markets will be closed. The Asian markets will be open, but because of the missing US and European traders, their volume may be lower than usual, and their trading range may be smaller than usual.
If you do not like the idea of another Monday without trading, you may want to consider some alternatives, such as replaying last week's trading, analysing some different markets, or learning a new trading system.
Further information about market holidays can be found in the market profiles, and on the appropriate exchange web sites (such as http://www.cme.com/ for the ES (S&P 500) futures market).
The May 28th holiday in the US and Europe happens tomorrow, and all of the US and European markets will be closed. The Asian markets will be open, but because of the missing US and European traders, their volume may be lower than usual, and their trading range may be smaller than usual.
If you do not like the idea of another Monday without trading, you may want to consider some alternatives, such as replaying last week's trading, analysing some different markets, or learning a new trading system.
Further information about market holidays can be found in the market profiles, and on the appropriate exchange web sites (such as http://www.cme.com/ for the ES (S&P 500) futures market).
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Monday : Factory Orders at 2:00 PM
Tuesday : ISM Non Manufacturing at 2:00 PM
Wednesday : Non Farm and Labor Costs at 12:30 PM
Thursday : Initial Claims at 12:30 PM
Europe
Monday : EU Producer Price Index at 9:00 AM
Tuesday : German Services Index at 7:55 AM, EU Services Index at 8:00 AM, UK Services Index at 8:30 AM, EU Retail Sales at 9:00 AM
Wednesday : German Factory Orders at 10:00 AM, EU Interest Rates at 11:45 AM, and ECB News Conference at 12:30 PM
Thursday : UK Interest Rates at 11:00 AM
Friday : German Current Account at 6:00 AM, German Industrial Production at 10:00 AM, and EU Leading Indicators at 10:00 AM
Asia
Tuesday : RBA Interest Rates at 1:00 PM
Wednesday : Japan Leading Economic Index at 5:00 AM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Monday : Factory Orders at 2:00 PM
Tuesday : ISM Non Manufacturing at 2:00 PM
Wednesday : Non Farm and Labor Costs at 12:30 PM
Thursday : Initial Claims at 12:30 PM
Europe
Monday : EU Producer Price Index at 9:00 AM
Tuesday : German Services Index at 7:55 AM, EU Services Index at 8:00 AM, UK Services Index at 8:30 AM, EU Retail Sales at 9:00 AM
Wednesday : German Factory Orders at 10:00 AM, EU Interest Rates at 11:45 AM, and ECB News Conference at 12:30 PM
Thursday : UK Interest Rates at 11:00 AM
Friday : German Current Account at 6:00 AM, German Industrial Production at 10:00 AM, and EU Leading Indicators at 10:00 AM
Asia
Tuesday : RBA Interest Rates at 1:00 PM
Wednesday : Japan Leading Economic Index at 5:00 AM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Wednesday : Retail Sales at 12:30 PM, Business Inventories at 2:00 PM, and Beige Book at 6:00 PM
Thursday : Initial Claims and Producer Price Index at 12:30 PM
Friday : Consumer Price Index at 12:30 PM, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 1:15 PM, and Consumer Sentiment Index at 2:00 PM
Europe
Monday : UK Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM
Tuesday : UK Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index at 8:30 AM, EU Industrial Production at 9:00 AM
Thursday : Switzerland Interest Rates at 1:00 PM
Asia
Monday : Japan Gross Domestic Product at 11:50 AM
Tuesday : Japan Consumer Confidence at 5:00 AM
Friday : BOJ Interest Rates at 9:30 AM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
The economic calendar for this week, with US, European, and Asian news releases, is as follows (all times are Greenwich Mean Time) :
US
Wednesday : Retail Sales at 12:30 PM, Business Inventories at 2:00 PM, and Beige Book at 6:00 PM
Thursday : Initial Claims and Producer Price Index at 12:30 PM
Friday : Consumer Price Index at 12:30 PM, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production at 1:15 PM, and Consumer Sentiment Index at 2:00 PM
Europe
Monday : UK Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM
Tuesday : UK Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index at 8:30 AM, EU Industrial Production at 9:00 AM
Thursday : Switzerland Interest Rates at 1:00 PM
Asia
Monday : Japan Gross Domestic Product at 11:50 AM
Tuesday : Japan Consumer Confidence at 5:00 AM
Friday : BOJ Interest Rates at 9:30 AM
If you would like to know more about fundamentals, and why most individual day traders are technical analysis traders, further information is available in the Fundamental or Technical Analysis article.
Day Trading Charts
Day Trading Charts
Day traders use trading charts to watch their markets, and decide when and how to make their trades. Trading charts are available in several different styles, and can be based upon many different timeframes (including timeframes that have nothing to do with time). The most popular trading charts are bar charts, candlestick charts, and line charts, and the most popular timeframes are time (seconds, minutes, hours, days), ticks (number of trades), and volume (number of contracts). Different trading systems require different chart types and timeframes, so all day traders need to know about the different chart types and timeframes, so that they can use the appropriate chart for the markets and types of trade that they are trading.
Descriptions and examples of the most popular types of trading charts and timeframes, with instructions for reading and interpreting the charts during trading, are available in the Day Trading Charts tutorials.
NBA Finals see lagging ratings
Even the majesty that is LeBron James couldn't trump Tony Soprano. Game 2 of the NBA finals, which aired on Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC Network, saw a drop in ratings as the San Antonio Spurs won 103-92, going up two games to none against the James-led Cleveland Cavaliers. Early numbers revealed that the game posted an overnight rating of 6.9 on the network, drawing 5.6% of U.S. TV households. This represents a 24% drop from the previous year's 9.1 rating for Game 2 of the Dallas Mavericks/Miami Heat series. NBA officials cited The Sopranos season finale for a large reason why folks weren't tuning in to catch some hoops. Available in 30 million households, the HBO show drew 11.9 million viewers; the game attracted 8.5 million viewers during the same hour-long time slot.But The Sopranos finale was just one hour on one night. Maybe the sagging ratings are because both San Antonio and Cleveland are relatively small markets (number 37 and 17, respectively)? Or perhaps in the post-Jordan era, people just don't care as much about professional basketball? According to USA Today, ESPN's NBA playoff broadcasts this season averaged 2.4% of cable TV households - on par with the rock-bottom numbers of 2003 - while ABC says its regular-season games (up to the finals) have seen ratings drop 40% from 2003 levels. To maintain a fleeting hope that this year's finals won't set an all-time ratings low, ABC needs the series to go 6 or even 7 games. With the Cavs now down three games to none, that's a severely unlikely possibility. Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
Paul McCartney album marks #3 debut for Starbucks
Billboard reported this afternoon that Paul McCartney's latest album, Memory Almost Full, debuted at #3 in the albums chart this week, with 161,000 copies sold. A strong showing for McCartney on new label Hear Music, founded by Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), is also a nice indicator for Starbucks, which fellow blogger Georges Yared wrote about this morning. The album, which has received rave reviews, debuted at #5 in McCartney's home country of England last weekend.As far as touring in promotion of the album, the former Beatle has only announced two secret shows, one in London last week and one tonight in New York. A full blown tour, reminiscent of his 2005 or 2002 tours is dependent on the outcome of his divorce, which is currently on hold according to reports. The 2002 tour was chronicled by the live album Back in the U.S. which debuted with 224,000 copies sold in its first week according to Billboard.While not a #1 release, such a strong debut by "new" label Hear Music should shake up the music world, primarily because so many copies of the album were sold at Starbucks locations. The album is available at most retailers and from online stores, but the marketing Starbucks put into the release included a "global listening party" where the album played continuously in stores the day it was released, making every coffee buyer a listener if not a buyer.
Will we see June gloom, big balloon or summer swoon?
Will we see June gloom, big balloon or summer swoon?
Posted Jun 13th 2007 9:00PM by Sheldon LiberFiled under: After the bell, Rants and raves, Indices, Economic data
All of the major stock indices were up big today, but I am not convinced it means anything at all. More often than not, stocks prices go down in the summer months and for some very practical reasons. It has nothing to do with consumer confidence, they were plenty confident last summer. It has nothing to do with interest rates, they were stable last summer. I think today's market rise is just a big balloon -- a warning balloon!
This market is getting old and one of the things that will tank it for the summer is the money managers knowing that there is better than a 50% chance the market will at least take a breather. None of them will want to be the last one out of the pool. They will want to book some profits for what has been a great run-up this year so far. They will play it safe and safe means market volume will go down. I say this as an optimist and one that is more often a buyer than a seller.
Since I have been writing the Chasing Value column (link below) there have been times when I have found so many great buys I could not write about them all. Now they are harder to come by. If there are less values to choose from then either people are going to pay up to get in the market or sit on their hands. I say they sit on their hands.
People on vacation are less active in the stock market and summer is that time of year. So collect your watch lists, and wait for an opportunity to acquire the stocks you have wanted to own, but buy them on your terms at your price. Today you witnessed the big balloon, that will be followed by a little more June gloom (and higher oil prices, I fear) and then a modest summer swoon ... as usual. If not, and investors choose to blow that balloon up a little more, and then some more after that, you may want to take a step back. I am not suggesting selling stocks unless you are holding things you should not have bought in the first place. I just would not be too aggressive right now.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.
Posted Jun 13th 2007 9:00PM by Sheldon LiberFiled under: After the bell, Rants and raves, Indices, Economic data
All of the major stock indices were up big today, but I am not convinced it means anything at all. More often than not, stocks prices go down in the summer months and for some very practical reasons. It has nothing to do with consumer confidence, they were plenty confident last summer. It has nothing to do with interest rates, they were stable last summer. I think today's market rise is just a big balloon -- a warning balloon!
This market is getting old and one of the things that will tank it for the summer is the money managers knowing that there is better than a 50% chance the market will at least take a breather. None of them will want to be the last one out of the pool. They will want to book some profits for what has been a great run-up this year so far. They will play it safe and safe means market volume will go down. I say this as an optimist and one that is more often a buyer than a seller.
Since I have been writing the Chasing Value column (link below) there have been times when I have found so many great buys I could not write about them all. Now they are harder to come by. If there are less values to choose from then either people are going to pay up to get in the market or sit on their hands. I say they sit on their hands.
People on vacation are less active in the stock market and summer is that time of year. So collect your watch lists, and wait for an opportunity to acquire the stocks you have wanted to own, but buy them on your terms at your price. Today you witnessed the big balloon, that will be followed by a little more June gloom (and higher oil prices, I fear) and then a modest summer swoon ... as usual. If not, and investors choose to blow that balloon up a little more, and then some more after that, you may want to take a step back. I am not suggesting selling stocks unless you are holding things you should not have bought in the first place. I just would not be too aggressive right now.
Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the vice president for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.
Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks
Cramer in China: Cramer's top five China stock picks
Posted Jun 13th 2007 6:55PM by Jon OggFiled under: International markets, Television, China
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer dedicated the night to China. He's not gung ho on Chinese stocks, but he's willing to review some of them. (As a reminder, Cramer said he doesn't like investing in China, he doesn't trust China, and he thinks it is overvalued.) He has forecasted an imminent 8% to 10% pullback any time, because, he says, the market is overheated. After you get that pullback then you can buy the stocks, but he advises not to do so now. As a reminder, Cramer said he wouldn't cross the river with his charitable trust to invest in China, even if there was a 20% pullback in the market. But Cramer does have some picks; he has three solid steady plays and two speculative stock picks. The 'solid plays':
CNOOC Limited (NYSE: CEO) is China's nationalized oil play, the number one offshore, a large player in Indonesia; it is 67% government-owned. Under the production sharing, the company gets the mandatory rights. As long as oil stays high this one is a winner, he thinks. ADR's have a $45 billion market cap; 3% dividend yield.
China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL), says Cramer, is the winner in the Chinese wireless market with 68% of the mobile users in China. The government owns the majority of the company. It has been on hold because of rumors that China Telecom might enter wireless; it has 1.9% dividend; $191 billion market cap.
Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) is a shipping vessel operator for overseas freight shipments; 6% dividend; $1.45 billion market cap. He likes this better than General Maritime Corporation (NYSE: GMR) now. The 'speculative plays':
Focus Media Holding Limited (NASDAQ: FMCN) runs display ads all over China and is now going online, and it is his first pick. It advertises in cities whose population exceeds 1 million people.
Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is called the "Google of China" by many, but it is actually beating Google at its own game in China. As a last reminder, Cramer said these names are only provided because YOU the audience keep asking for China picks, and he isn't a big fan. He thinks a big pullback is imminent and he wouldn't buy until after that correction occurs. He wouldn't buy these speculative names at all right now, and would only buy these on serious pullbacks. Consider yourself (he says) "warned and informed."
Posted Jun 13th 2007 6:55PM by Jon OggFiled under: International markets, Television, China
On tonight's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer dedicated the night to China. He's not gung ho on Chinese stocks, but he's willing to review some of them. (As a reminder, Cramer said he doesn't like investing in China, he doesn't trust China, and he thinks it is overvalued.) He has forecasted an imminent 8% to 10% pullback any time, because, he says, the market is overheated. After you get that pullback then you can buy the stocks, but he advises not to do so now. As a reminder, Cramer said he wouldn't cross the river with his charitable trust to invest in China, even if there was a 20% pullback in the market. But Cramer does have some picks; he has three solid steady plays and two speculative stock picks. The 'solid plays':
CNOOC Limited (NYSE: CEO) is China's nationalized oil play, the number one offshore, a large player in Indonesia; it is 67% government-owned. Under the production sharing, the company gets the mandatory rights. As long as oil stays high this one is a winner, he thinks. ADR's have a $45 billion market cap; 3% dividend yield.
China Mobile Limited (NYSE: CHL), says Cramer, is the winner in the Chinese wireless market with 68% of the mobile users in China. The government owns the majority of the company. It has been on hold because of rumors that China Telecom might enter wireless; it has 1.9% dividend; $191 billion market cap.
Seaspan Corporation (NYSE: SSW) is a shipping vessel operator for overseas freight shipments; 6% dividend; $1.45 billion market cap. He likes this better than General Maritime Corporation (NYSE: GMR) now. The 'speculative plays':
Focus Media Holding Limited (NASDAQ: FMCN) runs display ads all over China and is now going online, and it is his first pick. It advertises in cities whose population exceeds 1 million people.
Baidu.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU) is called the "Google of China" by many, but it is actually beating Google at its own game in China. As a last reminder, Cramer said these names are only provided because YOU the audience keep asking for China picks, and he isn't a big fan. He thinks a big pullback is imminent and he wouldn't buy until after that correction occurs. He wouldn't buy these speculative names at all right now, and would only buy these on serious pullbacks. Consider yourself (he says) "warned and informed."
Well Excuse Me
Well Excuse Me
It isn’t easy being skeptical, at least in public.A few weeks back, I made the mistake of asking what was perceived as a not-friendly question at a company breakout session during one of the many healthcare conferences we attend each year.Conferences are a great way to hear from a lot of companies in a short period of time, swap ideas with friends and maybe find something new. I spend most of my time in the breakout sessions, because that’s where you can take the measure of management and also hear what other people are worried about or interested in.It was in that frame of open-mindedness that in late September I stood in the back of a packed breakout session and listened to a management team explain its recent earnings stumble to the disappointed-but-hopeful shareholders in the crowd.The company in question is a formerly high-flying consolidator in the field of drug discovery tools and cell culture material for biotech and pharmaceutical companies—and until late last year management could do no wrong , snapping up $1.5 billion worth of other players in the field, reporting quarter after quarter of positive earnings surprises, and watching its stock triple in the process.The good times, and the stock, peaked last year, prior to several inconsistent earnings reports, and was well below its $88 peak when the company reported a bona fide earnings miss this August—a miss that caused one of Wall Street’s Finest to ask, during the ensuing conference call,“What the hell happened?”I am not making that up.Here’s the full quote:The first question, I'm just curious at what dramatically changed from the time that you had your analyst day in June…. Certainly when we were at the analyst day, I think we spent a lot of time drilling down onto your visibility into the back half of the year, and I think I will speak for a lot of the people on the phone that want to know what the hell happened?Now, the company in question didn’t get to be a Wall Street Fave by fumbling conference calls. And sure enough management spent a good portion of the call talking up a $500 million share buyback the company had announced simultaneously with the earnings miss.Such share buybacks are an old technique by which companies take the sting out of what we on the Street call a stock that is—in the precise, technical jargon of the professionals that we are—“blowing-up” as a result of the company “puking the quarter.” And a half-billion dollar share buyback is, at least for this company, pretty big.But what made it stand out, at least for me, was the eagerness with which management shared the details of when and at what price the buy-back would take place.See if you can spot what appears to be—and I do not believe I overstate the case—an implied guarantee that the stock would go up some time in the future following the buyback:Now I would like to briefly cover the share repurchase program that we announced today. We see the buyback as a means of returning excess cash to our shareholders and enhancing our return on invested capital. The current stock price is an additional factor in our decision since we're confident in the future of the Company and therefore know that we will get an attractive return for purchasing the stock at this price [emphasis added].And to make it seem even more like a no-lose proposition, the CFO more or less said the company would begin buying its stock at once:We have a significant amount of funds currently available to do this buyback as well as acquisitions. With our cash balance of over 700 million plus the current revolver and the addition of the second half free cash flow, we have plenty of funds at our disposal to execute a significant portion of the buyback immediately as well as move quickly on acquisitions as opportunities arise. [Emphasis added.]Whether all this was a bald attempt to prop up the stock or not, I have no idea and take no side, but the implication was clear: the company would spend a “significant” portion of $500 million buying stock real quick.This seemed to me roughly equivalent of an over-excited Grad Student hell bent on making his name at Binion's Texas Hold ‘Em table flashing his paired aces to the other players and going "all in" before the Flop, the Turn or the River. Anybody at the table with half a brain would immediately fold, leaving Mr. Paired Aces nothing to collect for his great hand but the lousy blinds.After all, the very act of announcing the company’s intent to buy several hundred million dollars worth of stock ASAP would likely hold up the stock price higher than where it otherwise would trade, thereby unnecessarily raising the cost of the share repurchase and lowering the return to shareholders.Nevertheless, the company did show its cards. And in case anybody had missed them, the CFO flashed them again, during the Q&A session, repeating the company’s eagerness to begin buying stock:It was authorized at our most recent Board meeting last week, and we're in the blackout period. We'll be in the blackout period until Sunday, and at which point we would be free to start executing buyback. As we've said before, we're running through the mechanics right now, but we would do a substantial portion of the $500 million authorization relatively soon [emphasis added].Now, I admit to being a little wary of managements that try to keep Wall Street’s Finest on their side with happy talk and spin control.But, hey, if I'd been long a stock that was no doubt being referred to by disgruntled portfolio managers as—using, once again, the precise technical term—“a pig,” I’d be rooting for the company to buy every share it could get its hands on, price be damned, if only to give me a chance to get out.(It may surprise people to read this, especially those who put their life and heart and soul into a company for the better part of their natural lives on this planet, but most institutional investors—hedge funds especially—could not care less what a company actually does for a living and how it provides for its employees and their families and their children: most of 'em just want the stock to go up. And if it doesn’t, they get rid of it like an old bag of lettuce turning brown and wet in the back of the frig.)And so it was that two months after the Paired Aces conference call, I decided to attend the Q&A session of management’s appearance at a healthcare conference, just to listen.And it was during the course of a discussion about the $500 million share repurchase that management allowed as how the company could buy stock up to a price as high as $80 a share.I looked at my Blackberry: the stock was trading hundreds of thousands of shares, at a price near $63.This boggled the mind.Why on earth would a company authorize a repurchase “up to” eighty bucks a share when it could have all it wanted in the low $60s?Aside from making the poor shmucks who’d owned the stock at $80 feel like they had some shot at getting their money back, I could see no reason to slap a silly number on something as serious as the allocation of half a billion dollars' worth of shareholder’s capital.What, I wondered, were they smoking?So I asked them that, in a slightly different way:“How’d you come up with $80?”Management smiled tightly and more or less shrugged, saying something to the effect of this:"That’s what we decided."So I asked it again:“But how did you get $80? Were you looking at return on capital? Earnings dilution? What was the analysis?”Now, anybody with six months in this business could have answered that question. My dog Lucy could have answered it, if she could talk.After all, most public companies at some time or other buy back stock—some to offset option dilution; some to take advantage of market weakness; some to shrink their capital base; some to prop up the stock; some to re-allocate capital in the absence of better reinvestment opportunities; some for all the above.And when they buy stock, they usually consider two things in determining what price to pay: they look at the point at which a repurchase becomes dilutive to earnings (based on the implied cash on cash return of a repurchase as compared with keeping the money in T-Bills) or the alternative returns from making an acquisition with the dough.Something, in other words, that is rational and easily defined.But you would have thought I had asked these guys for their opinion on the Combined Uniform Theory of Relativity, or whether they were, in fact, the bright boys responsible for the “intelligence” that Saddam had WMD. Or the ones who thought of giving the CBS anchor job to Katie Couric.They sort of shrugged and cleared their throats while a kind of embarrassed silence descended on the room, keeping anybody else from following up on the topic.Finally, a fellow sitting near me in the back turned and said in an angry, sharp voice:“The stock traded at $80 not too long ago, you know.”Since he was clearly one of the poor schmucks who had owned the stock at $80 and was rooting for the stock to get back there, I didn’t say what I was thinking, which was:“So let me get this straight: the company should pay $80 just because that’s what some idiot thought it was worth last year?”Instead I let it go.You can’t win asking a perceived-unfriendly question in a room full of investors who know they’re stuck in a pig but don’t want to admit it.Which is why it wasn’t all that surprising when the company "puked" another quarter just last week and the stock "blew up"…at the same time management announced it had spent almost $300 million of that half-a-billion authorization to buy stock at $61.Now, you might think that with the stock dropping below that price on Friday, the company would be delighted to have the opportunity to spend the rest of the $500 million at a lower price.After all, if they liked it up to $80 and paid $61, they must love it below $60, right?Well, not exactly.“We expect to continue to be buyers of our stock, although the level of the buyback will depend on several factors, including share price, other cash requirements, and expected cash generation.”In other words, this time they aren’t showing their cards yet.And they want to see the Flop—and maybe the Turn and the River—before they go “all-in.”© 2006 Jeff MatthewsThe content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.
It isn’t easy being skeptical, at least in public.A few weeks back, I made the mistake of asking what was perceived as a not-friendly question at a company breakout session during one of the many healthcare conferences we attend each year.Conferences are a great way to hear from a lot of companies in a short period of time, swap ideas with friends and maybe find something new. I spend most of my time in the breakout sessions, because that’s where you can take the measure of management and also hear what other people are worried about or interested in.It was in that frame of open-mindedness that in late September I stood in the back of a packed breakout session and listened to a management team explain its recent earnings stumble to the disappointed-but-hopeful shareholders in the crowd.The company in question is a formerly high-flying consolidator in the field of drug discovery tools and cell culture material for biotech and pharmaceutical companies—and until late last year management could do no wrong , snapping up $1.5 billion worth of other players in the field, reporting quarter after quarter of positive earnings surprises, and watching its stock triple in the process.The good times, and the stock, peaked last year, prior to several inconsistent earnings reports, and was well below its $88 peak when the company reported a bona fide earnings miss this August—a miss that caused one of Wall Street’s Finest to ask, during the ensuing conference call,“What the hell happened?”I am not making that up.Here’s the full quote:The first question, I'm just curious at what dramatically changed from the time that you had your analyst day in June…. Certainly when we were at the analyst day, I think we spent a lot of time drilling down onto your visibility into the back half of the year, and I think I will speak for a lot of the people on the phone that want to know what the hell happened?Now, the company in question didn’t get to be a Wall Street Fave by fumbling conference calls. And sure enough management spent a good portion of the call talking up a $500 million share buyback the company had announced simultaneously with the earnings miss.Such share buybacks are an old technique by which companies take the sting out of what we on the Street call a stock that is—in the precise, technical jargon of the professionals that we are—“blowing-up” as a result of the company “puking the quarter.” And a half-billion dollar share buyback is, at least for this company, pretty big.But what made it stand out, at least for me, was the eagerness with which management shared the details of when and at what price the buy-back would take place.See if you can spot what appears to be—and I do not believe I overstate the case—an implied guarantee that the stock would go up some time in the future following the buyback:Now I would like to briefly cover the share repurchase program that we announced today. We see the buyback as a means of returning excess cash to our shareholders and enhancing our return on invested capital. The current stock price is an additional factor in our decision since we're confident in the future of the Company and therefore know that we will get an attractive return for purchasing the stock at this price [emphasis added].And to make it seem even more like a no-lose proposition, the CFO more or less said the company would begin buying its stock at once:We have a significant amount of funds currently available to do this buyback as well as acquisitions. With our cash balance of over 700 million plus the current revolver and the addition of the second half free cash flow, we have plenty of funds at our disposal to execute a significant portion of the buyback immediately as well as move quickly on acquisitions as opportunities arise. [Emphasis added.]Whether all this was a bald attempt to prop up the stock or not, I have no idea and take no side, but the implication was clear: the company would spend a “significant” portion of $500 million buying stock real quick.This seemed to me roughly equivalent of an over-excited Grad Student hell bent on making his name at Binion's Texas Hold ‘Em table flashing his paired aces to the other players and going "all in" before the Flop, the Turn or the River. Anybody at the table with half a brain would immediately fold, leaving Mr. Paired Aces nothing to collect for his great hand but the lousy blinds.After all, the very act of announcing the company’s intent to buy several hundred million dollars worth of stock ASAP would likely hold up the stock price higher than where it otherwise would trade, thereby unnecessarily raising the cost of the share repurchase and lowering the return to shareholders.Nevertheless, the company did show its cards. And in case anybody had missed them, the CFO flashed them again, during the Q&A session, repeating the company’s eagerness to begin buying stock:It was authorized at our most recent Board meeting last week, and we're in the blackout period. We'll be in the blackout period until Sunday, and at which point we would be free to start executing buyback. As we've said before, we're running through the mechanics right now, but we would do a substantial portion of the $500 million authorization relatively soon [emphasis added].Now, I admit to being a little wary of managements that try to keep Wall Street’s Finest on their side with happy talk and spin control.But, hey, if I'd been long a stock that was no doubt being referred to by disgruntled portfolio managers as—using, once again, the precise technical term—“a pig,” I’d be rooting for the company to buy every share it could get its hands on, price be damned, if only to give me a chance to get out.(It may surprise people to read this, especially those who put their life and heart and soul into a company for the better part of their natural lives on this planet, but most institutional investors—hedge funds especially—could not care less what a company actually does for a living and how it provides for its employees and their families and their children: most of 'em just want the stock to go up. And if it doesn’t, they get rid of it like an old bag of lettuce turning brown and wet in the back of the frig.)And so it was that two months after the Paired Aces conference call, I decided to attend the Q&A session of management’s appearance at a healthcare conference, just to listen.And it was during the course of a discussion about the $500 million share repurchase that management allowed as how the company could buy stock up to a price as high as $80 a share.I looked at my Blackberry: the stock was trading hundreds of thousands of shares, at a price near $63.This boggled the mind.Why on earth would a company authorize a repurchase “up to” eighty bucks a share when it could have all it wanted in the low $60s?Aside from making the poor shmucks who’d owned the stock at $80 feel like they had some shot at getting their money back, I could see no reason to slap a silly number on something as serious as the allocation of half a billion dollars' worth of shareholder’s capital.What, I wondered, were they smoking?So I asked them that, in a slightly different way:“How’d you come up with $80?”Management smiled tightly and more or less shrugged, saying something to the effect of this:"That’s what we decided."So I asked it again:“But how did you get $80? Were you looking at return on capital? Earnings dilution? What was the analysis?”Now, anybody with six months in this business could have answered that question. My dog Lucy could have answered it, if she could talk.After all, most public companies at some time or other buy back stock—some to offset option dilution; some to take advantage of market weakness; some to shrink their capital base; some to prop up the stock; some to re-allocate capital in the absence of better reinvestment opportunities; some for all the above.And when they buy stock, they usually consider two things in determining what price to pay: they look at the point at which a repurchase becomes dilutive to earnings (based on the implied cash on cash return of a repurchase as compared with keeping the money in T-Bills) or the alternative returns from making an acquisition with the dough.Something, in other words, that is rational and easily defined.But you would have thought I had asked these guys for their opinion on the Combined Uniform Theory of Relativity, or whether they were, in fact, the bright boys responsible for the “intelligence” that Saddam had WMD. Or the ones who thought of giving the CBS anchor job to Katie Couric.They sort of shrugged and cleared their throats while a kind of embarrassed silence descended on the room, keeping anybody else from following up on the topic.Finally, a fellow sitting near me in the back turned and said in an angry, sharp voice:“The stock traded at $80 not too long ago, you know.”Since he was clearly one of the poor schmucks who had owned the stock at $80 and was rooting for the stock to get back there, I didn’t say what I was thinking, which was:“So let me get this straight: the company should pay $80 just because that’s what some idiot thought it was worth last year?”Instead I let it go.You can’t win asking a perceived-unfriendly question in a room full of investors who know they’re stuck in a pig but don’t want to admit it.Which is why it wasn’t all that surprising when the company "puked" another quarter just last week and the stock "blew up"…at the same time management announced it had spent almost $300 million of that half-a-billion authorization to buy stock at $61.Now, you might think that with the stock dropping below that price on Friday, the company would be delighted to have the opportunity to spend the rest of the $500 million at a lower price.After all, if they liked it up to $80 and paid $61, they must love it below $60, right?Well, not exactly.“We expect to continue to be buyers of our stock, although the level of the buyback will depend on several factors, including share price, other cash requirements, and expected cash generation.”In other words, this time they aren’t showing their cards yet.And they want to see the Flop—and maybe the Turn and the River—before they go “all-in.”© 2006 Jeff MatthewsThe content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations. This commentary in no way constitutes a solicitation of business or investment advice. It is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.
Venezuela to offer CANTV stock buy-out
Venezuela to offer CANTV stock buy-out
Venezuela will offer to buy out stock in CANTV next week, expecting to take a share of 60 to 70 percent in the country's biggest telephone company, Telecommunications Minister Jesse Chacon said on Wednesday.He told the Reuters Latin American Investment Summit in Caracas that Venezuela expects it would move to delist CANTV's American Depository Shares after taking the majority interest.The move would be part of President Hugo Chavez's wide-ranging nationalization program. The leftist leader is taking over swathes of the economy which he defines as strategic, such as oil projects and power utilities.Go to the full article here.
Venezuela will offer to buy out stock in CANTV next week, expecting to take a share of 60 to 70 percent in the country's biggest telephone company, Telecommunications Minister Jesse Chacon said on Wednesday.He told the Reuters Latin American Investment Summit in Caracas that Venezuela expects it would move to delist CANTV's American Depository Shares after taking the majority interest.The move would be part of President Hugo Chavez's wide-ranging nationalization program. The leftist leader is taking over swathes of the economy which he defines as strategic, such as oil projects and power utilities.Go to the full article here.
Short stock
Short stock
I short on stock such as Amazon, Radio Shock, Six flag, etc.When market has bad analysis on it, I short it.But, I got the bad luck...these stock just like rocket kepp going up up and more up.
I short on stock such as Amazon, Radio Shock, Six flag, etc.When market has bad analysis on it, I short it.But, I got the bad luck...these stock just like rocket kepp going up up and more up.
Buy too much at same stock
Buy too much at same stock
I bought too much at same stock then stock keep down.Then I loss a lot.I also buy a big lot at same price that kill me.When stock went down I don't have power to buy at low.
I bought too much at same stock then stock keep down.Then I loss a lot.I also buy a big lot at same price that kill me.When stock went down I don't have power to buy at low.
use margin buy stock
use margin buy stock
Use margin to buy stock is good or bad.Good, if the stock on the right track then you can get out soon.Bad, for me a lot of time I got the margin call and I don't have money to cover it then I loss all.
Use margin to buy stock is good or bad.Good, if the stock on the right track then you can get out soon.Bad, for me a lot of time I got the margin call and I don't have money to cover it then I loss all.
Play penny stock
Play penny stock
Penny stock is very cheap but it could be go to zero.It can make you rich quick or become paprless.
Penny stock is very cheap but it could be go to zero.It can make you rich quick or become paprless.
Buy high and sell low
Buy high and sell low
Most time, I saw the news and stock jump high.I bough it at high and thinking it will going high.But, it went down and down..Then for while it was not up to my price I bought.I sold it.....after that it jump.....
Most time, I saw the news and stock jump high.I bough it at high and thinking it will going high.But, it went down and down..Then for while it was not up to my price I bought.I sold it.....after that it jump.....
Howard: The Best Thing That Ever Happened…to XM?
Howard: The Best Thing That Ever Happened…to XM?
ON JANUARY 9 THE GLOVES ARE COMING OFF…AND MAYBE SOME TOPS.That’s the headline for a full page ad running in the newspaper of record—The New York Post—above the image of a clenched fist that is the logo of the new Howard Stern radio show coming soon on satellite radio.In the unlikely event you haven’t already heard, New York “shock-jock” Howard Stern will start his morning gross-out-o-rama January 9th on Sirius Satellite Radio—and he promises the uncensored setting will allow his inner-deviant to fully reveal itself via not one but two channels on the Sirius network.Says Howard: “If it's weighing a guy's bowel movement, I can do it. If I want to be gross, I can be gross.”Now that should be funny.Financially speaking, Howard has already covered the cost of his five-year, $500 million contract with Sirius by virtue of the fact that at least a million of his 10-12 million Infinity Broadcasting listeners will have signed up with Sirius for its $13-a-month subscription service in order to listen to Howard weigh a guy’s bowel movement and whatever other hilarity he has in store.$13 a month times twelve months in a year times one million new subscribers approximates $150 million of incremental annual revenue for Sirius. Even adjusting for subscriber churn (the rate at which subscribers drop the service), the deal was worth every penny to the Number Two satellite radio operator—which stumbled out of the gate thanks to being overly dependant on Ford Motor, badly lagging XM in market share.And now that Sirius has Mel Karmazin as its CEO—Karmazin being the man Don Imus called “The Zen Master” when he was building Infinity Broadcasting into acquisition-bait for Viacom—satellite radio has truly come of age.Judging by the recent moves in Sirius shares, a lot of people are betting on Howard to be the satellite-equivalent of Milton Berle—the comedian whose popularity drove millions of Americans to buy a television set.But is Sirius worth the price?Sirius has 1.3 billion shares outstanding, $1.1 billion debt and $900 million of cash, according to my Bloomberg. At $7.00 a share this yields and enterprise value of $9.3 billion.That’s roughly $3,100 per subscriber based on Sirius’ stated forecast of hitting 3 million subscribers by the end of this month.XM, meanwhile, has 222 million shares, $1.1 billion of debt and $750 million in cash, giving it an enterprise value of $7 billion at the recent $30 share price.That’s $1,160 per subscriber based on the forecasted 6 million subscribers at year-end.So, right now, Sirius—despite having a higher fixed cost base with the Howard Stern and NFL content deals, plus less desirable satellite coverage than XM (Sirius needs another satellite to ensure complete coverage in event of a failure)—trades at almost three-times the per-subscriber valuation of XM.Is a Sirius subscriber worth three-times an XM subscriber?Both Sirius and XM—the Avis and Hertz of the business—present essentially the same service, beaming 100-plus channels of content, mostly interruption-free, to most corners of the country.And that service is, to use a cliche, a game-changer: you can hear almost anything you want to hear, plus a lot of music you haven’t heard before—but with no commercials, no idiotic disk-jockeys, no Clear Channel-type 20-song computer-selected playlists.Once you’ve tried satellite radio, regular AM/FM radio sounds hopelessly ancient, and a twenty minute drive in a car without XM or Sirius becomes torture. Five years from now, I expect satellite radio will be standard on all cars and increasingly taking share at home.In the meantime, however, the subscriber base of nine million is relatively low, though growing quickly. Both XM and Sirius lose money and lose a lot of it—thanks to the high up-front cost of putting up satellites and building the systems architectures and chip designs for the receiving units.But the ongoing capital expenditure is remarkably small. There is no Cable Guy who needs to drive out to your house and string cable and drill holes to set up the service. So at some point down the road, the satellite radio business—unlike cable—should turn actual real no-pro-forma-type-nonsense cash profitable, and, later on, might actually generate earnings for shareholders.So, is Sirius really worth three-times XM? Only if you believe that Howard will continue to accelerate Sirius’ subscriber growth rate and allow Sirius to, over time, become three-times as profitable as XM.But that is doubtful, for three reasons.First, XM dominates the factory-installed automobile market.Second, Howard Stern is probably as big as Howard Stern is going to get—a point lost on many retail accounts now buying Sirius stock to “play Howard.”Third, and this is more speculative, but the headline in the Sirius advertising campaign, plus Howard’s own interviews, indicate Howard is turning towards a much darker direction than maybe even Howard’s fans are going to be comfortable with.He appears to rule out only bestiality and torture: “I'm not comfortable with somebody killing someone, I don't want people being hurt.”Most parents, given a choice of two satellite radio systems with essentially the same music, news and entertainment offerings for their car, will probably opt for the one that does not offer the sounds of human beings copulating, crack-addicted prostitutes debating sex, drugs and world events, and whatever else the uncensored Howard plans to broadcast on two Sirius channels, 24 hours a day.That is not morality speaking, just practicality.
My guess—and I have no stake in the outcome—is that Howard’s value to Sirius has already peaked. In fact, he may be the best thing that ever happened to XM.Jeff MatthewsI Am Not Making This Up© 2005 Jeff MatthewsThe content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
ON JANUARY 9 THE GLOVES ARE COMING OFF…AND MAYBE SOME TOPS.That’s the headline for a full page ad running in the newspaper of record—The New York Post—above the image of a clenched fist that is the logo of the new Howard Stern radio show coming soon on satellite radio.In the unlikely event you haven’t already heard, New York “shock-jock” Howard Stern will start his morning gross-out-o-rama January 9th on Sirius Satellite Radio—and he promises the uncensored setting will allow his inner-deviant to fully reveal itself via not one but two channels on the Sirius network.Says Howard: “If it's weighing a guy's bowel movement, I can do it. If I want to be gross, I can be gross.”Now that should be funny.Financially speaking, Howard has already covered the cost of his five-year, $500 million contract with Sirius by virtue of the fact that at least a million of his 10-12 million Infinity Broadcasting listeners will have signed up with Sirius for its $13-a-month subscription service in order to listen to Howard weigh a guy’s bowel movement and whatever other hilarity he has in store.$13 a month times twelve months in a year times one million new subscribers approximates $150 million of incremental annual revenue for Sirius. Even adjusting for subscriber churn (the rate at which subscribers drop the service), the deal was worth every penny to the Number Two satellite radio operator—which stumbled out of the gate thanks to being overly dependant on Ford Motor, badly lagging XM in market share.And now that Sirius has Mel Karmazin as its CEO—Karmazin being the man Don Imus called “The Zen Master” when he was building Infinity Broadcasting into acquisition-bait for Viacom—satellite radio has truly come of age.Judging by the recent moves in Sirius shares, a lot of people are betting on Howard to be the satellite-equivalent of Milton Berle—the comedian whose popularity drove millions of Americans to buy a television set.But is Sirius worth the price?Sirius has 1.3 billion shares outstanding, $1.1 billion debt and $900 million of cash, according to my Bloomberg. At $7.00 a share this yields and enterprise value of $9.3 billion.That’s roughly $3,100 per subscriber based on Sirius’ stated forecast of hitting 3 million subscribers by the end of this month.XM, meanwhile, has 222 million shares, $1.1 billion of debt and $750 million in cash, giving it an enterprise value of $7 billion at the recent $30 share price.That’s $1,160 per subscriber based on the forecasted 6 million subscribers at year-end.So, right now, Sirius—despite having a higher fixed cost base with the Howard Stern and NFL content deals, plus less desirable satellite coverage than XM (Sirius needs another satellite to ensure complete coverage in event of a failure)—trades at almost three-times the per-subscriber valuation of XM.Is a Sirius subscriber worth three-times an XM subscriber?Both Sirius and XM—the Avis and Hertz of the business—present essentially the same service, beaming 100-plus channels of content, mostly interruption-free, to most corners of the country.And that service is, to use a cliche, a game-changer: you can hear almost anything you want to hear, plus a lot of music you haven’t heard before—but with no commercials, no idiotic disk-jockeys, no Clear Channel-type 20-song computer-selected playlists.Once you’ve tried satellite radio, regular AM/FM radio sounds hopelessly ancient, and a twenty minute drive in a car without XM or Sirius becomes torture. Five years from now, I expect satellite radio will be standard on all cars and increasingly taking share at home.In the meantime, however, the subscriber base of nine million is relatively low, though growing quickly. Both XM and Sirius lose money and lose a lot of it—thanks to the high up-front cost of putting up satellites and building the systems architectures and chip designs for the receiving units.But the ongoing capital expenditure is remarkably small. There is no Cable Guy who needs to drive out to your house and string cable and drill holes to set up the service. So at some point down the road, the satellite radio business—unlike cable—should turn actual real no-pro-forma-type-nonsense cash profitable, and, later on, might actually generate earnings for shareholders.So, is Sirius really worth three-times XM? Only if you believe that Howard will continue to accelerate Sirius’ subscriber growth rate and allow Sirius to, over time, become three-times as profitable as XM.But that is doubtful, for three reasons.First, XM dominates the factory-installed automobile market.Second, Howard Stern is probably as big as Howard Stern is going to get—a point lost on many retail accounts now buying Sirius stock to “play Howard.”Third, and this is more speculative, but the headline in the Sirius advertising campaign, plus Howard’s own interviews, indicate Howard is turning towards a much darker direction than maybe even Howard’s fans are going to be comfortable with.He appears to rule out only bestiality and torture: “I'm not comfortable with somebody killing someone, I don't want people being hurt.”Most parents, given a choice of two satellite radio systems with essentially the same music, news and entertainment offerings for their car, will probably opt for the one that does not offer the sounds of human beings copulating, crack-addicted prostitutes debating sex, drugs and world events, and whatever else the uncensored Howard plans to broadcast on two Sirius channels, 24 hours a day.That is not morality speaking, just practicality.
My guess—and I have no stake in the outcome—is that Howard’s value to Sirius has already peaked. In fact, he may be the best thing that ever happened to XM.Jeff MatthewsI Am Not Making This Up© 2005 Jeff MatthewsThe content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews' recommendations.
World’s Worst Businessman
World’s Worst Businessman
That would be me. I think I do some things pretty well. I think I can communicate, verbally or in print, in a way to convey even complex subjects to a wide range of audiences. I think I am pretty good at ferreting out good claims from questionable claims. I have been told that I am a good debater. Business acumen, however, is not one of my strengths.I have known this for a long time. The first time I bought a new vehicle (I was 19), the salesman asked how much I wanted for my trade-in. When I told him, he said “How about we give you $500 more than that?” A car salesman took pity on me. Of course he did so because he had just earned enough on that sale to put his kids through college.It’s not that I have done badly with my investments, though. I have always invested the maximum contribution into my 401K, and I have put the maximum contribution into an IRA since I was 17. But I have failed to take advantage of many opportunities that could have comfortably made me a millionaire many times over.The recent Xethanol story provides but a single example (and ties into the energy theme of my blog). The Sharesleuth.com exposé on Xethanol came out on August 7th:Moonshine BlindnessHowever, I had advance knowledge of the story. Since I had been asked to comment on the story the previous week, I had several trading days in which to stake a position to take advantage of the fallout from the story. While I understand that there were no shares available to short, I could have sold call options and/or bought put options. So, what did I do? Nothing. I didn’t even seriously consider it. Of course I have to admit that the ethical implications are also bothersome to me, even if it doesn’t qualify as insider trading. I also hate taking advantage of people (which is one reason I am not a good business man).When I had knowledge that the Sharesleuth story would come out, XNL was trading at $7.50. A few days after the story was published, it closed at $4.97. That is a very big percentage move for a few days work.Right after the Sharesleuth story came out, Xethanol put out a press release in which they claimed to have addressed the allegations. I used one of my strengths to dissect the press release. I pulled out my BS detector and read through it carefully. It appeared to me that they had not addressed the allegations at all, but had merely danced around the issues. I documented my impressions in an update to my Xethanol article:Xethanol Story I concluded with:
So what did the news release actually address? None of the substantive issues. They didn’t address the fact that many people involved with Xethanol have been involved in shady behavior. They didn’t address any questions at all about the plant with no utilities. Their “response” was a complete sleight of hand.On Thursday, a report from TheStreet.com came to a similar conclusion (exactly 1 week after I did):'Gaping Holes' at Xethanol Xethanol refused to arrange an interview that would have allowed corporate executives to present their side of the story. The company instead stood by an eight-paragraph press release that, while adamant in tone, fails to specifically address many issues in the long sharesleuth.com report.The report also reinforces the findings of Sharesleuth, and adds a few findings of its own. Bottom line? Upside potential of XNL appears to be limited.Oh well. At least this way I don't have any ethical issues to be concerned about.
That would be me. I think I do some things pretty well. I think I can communicate, verbally or in print, in a way to convey even complex subjects to a wide range of audiences. I think I am pretty good at ferreting out good claims from questionable claims. I have been told that I am a good debater. Business acumen, however, is not one of my strengths.I have known this for a long time. The first time I bought a new vehicle (I was 19), the salesman asked how much I wanted for my trade-in. When I told him, he said “How about we give you $500 more than that?” A car salesman took pity on me. Of course he did so because he had just earned enough on that sale to put his kids through college.It’s not that I have done badly with my investments, though. I have always invested the maximum contribution into my 401K, and I have put the maximum contribution into an IRA since I was 17. But I have failed to take advantage of many opportunities that could have comfortably made me a millionaire many times over.The recent Xethanol story provides but a single example (and ties into the energy theme of my blog). The Sharesleuth.com exposé on Xethanol came out on August 7th:Moonshine BlindnessHowever, I had advance knowledge of the story. Since I had been asked to comment on the story the previous week, I had several trading days in which to stake a position to take advantage of the fallout from the story. While I understand that there were no shares available to short, I could have sold call options and/or bought put options. So, what did I do? Nothing. I didn’t even seriously consider it. Of course I have to admit that the ethical implications are also bothersome to me, even if it doesn’t qualify as insider trading. I also hate taking advantage of people (which is one reason I am not a good business man).When I had knowledge that the Sharesleuth story would come out, XNL was trading at $7.50. A few days after the story was published, it closed at $4.97. That is a very big percentage move for a few days work.Right after the Sharesleuth story came out, Xethanol put out a press release in which they claimed to have addressed the allegations. I used one of my strengths to dissect the press release. I pulled out my BS detector and read through it carefully. It appeared to me that they had not addressed the allegations at all, but had merely danced around the issues. I documented my impressions in an update to my Xethanol article:Xethanol Story I concluded with:
So what did the news release actually address? None of the substantive issues. They didn’t address the fact that many people involved with Xethanol have been involved in shady behavior. They didn’t address any questions at all about the plant with no utilities. Their “response” was a complete sleight of hand.On Thursday, a report from TheStreet.com came to a similar conclusion (exactly 1 week after I did):'Gaping Holes' at Xethanol Xethanol refused to arrange an interview that would have allowed corporate executives to present their side of the story. The company instead stood by an eight-paragraph press release that, while adamant in tone, fails to specifically address many issues in the long sharesleuth.com report.The report also reinforces the findings of Sharesleuth, and adds a few findings of its own. Bottom line? Upside potential of XNL appears to be limited.Oh well. At least this way I don't have any ethical issues to be concerned about.
Buy Amazon stock...I am making them rich!
Buy Amazon stock...I am making them rich!
I haven't been doing much reading lately. Well, I should clarify I haven't been doing much *book* reading lately. I feel like I have been glued to my computer over the last three months, only coming up for air for an event here and there as there is so much going on, and a million little projects I need to complete before year end. So my reading as of late has been solely that of the blogs I like to read (to help keep me 'in the know'). But honestly, most of it is starting to sound the same (sorry guys) so I have been backing away from that medium too in dire need of something 'meatier' - well, actually - I should say in dire need of something 'different'.Enter: the paperback book. Or 'books' I should say. Time to make some quiet 'Kristie time' to engage the brain differently and allow the eyeballs to be glued to something other than the light of my PC screen.So I went on to Amazon today and bought a good assortment of books. 12 to be exact. Some are silly, others are books that were recommended by someone I think the world of, and the rest just sounded interesting so I figured I would give them a whirl.Want to know what I spent my allowance on? Here you go:
Never Let Me Go - Kazuo Ishiguro
Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln - Doris Kearns Goodwin
The Kite Runner - Khaled Hosseini
PostSecret: Extraordinary Confessions from Ordinary Lives - Frank Warren
Thunderstruck - Erik Larson
The Mr. & Mrs. Happy Handbook: Everything I Know About Love and Marriage (with corrections by Mrs. Doocy) - Steve Doocy
The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game - Michael Lewis
The Secret - Rhonda Byrne
The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream - Barack Obama
I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings - Maya Angelou
Middlesex - Jeffrey Eugenides
Lovely Bones - Alice SeboldI expect to start turning pages over the holiday as I find myself with much needed downtime. If all goes well, I will burn through a book or three per month (not getting too crazy with my goals) and will post a review of each one to let you know if I thought it was worth my time or not. And once this batch is read - I will order more. So buy that Amazon stock now, as I expect them to make quite a wad of cash off me in 2007.Technorati tags: book books reading amazon lovetoread nomoreblogs
I haven't been doing much reading lately. Well, I should clarify I haven't been doing much *book* reading lately. I feel like I have been glued to my computer over the last three months, only coming up for air for an event here and there as there is so much going on, and a million little projects I need to complete before year end. So my reading as of late has been solely that of the blogs I like to read (to help keep me 'in the know'). But honestly, most of it is starting to sound the same (sorry guys) so I have been backing away from that medium too in dire need of something 'meatier' - well, actually - I should say in dire need of something 'different'.Enter: the paperback book. Or 'books' I should say. Time to make some quiet 'Kristie time' to engage the brain differently and allow the eyeballs to be glued to something other than the light of my PC screen.So I went on to Amazon today and bought a good assortment of books. 12 to be exact. Some are silly, others are books that were recommended by someone I think the world of, and the rest just sounded interesting so I figured I would give them a whirl.Want to know what I spent my allowance on? Here you go:
Never Let Me Go - Kazuo Ishiguro
Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln - Doris Kearns Goodwin
The Kite Runner - Khaled Hosseini
PostSecret: Extraordinary Confessions from Ordinary Lives - Frank Warren
Thunderstruck - Erik Larson
The Mr. & Mrs. Happy Handbook: Everything I Know About Love and Marriage (with corrections by Mrs. Doocy) - Steve Doocy
The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game - Michael Lewis
The Secret - Rhonda Byrne
The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream - Barack Obama
I Know Why the Caged Bird Sings - Maya Angelou
Middlesex - Jeffrey Eugenides
Lovely Bones - Alice SeboldI expect to start turning pages over the holiday as I find myself with much needed downtime. If all goes well, I will burn through a book or three per month (not getting too crazy with my goals) and will post a review of each one to let you know if I thought it was worth my time or not. And once this batch is read - I will order more. So buy that Amazon stock now, as I expect them to make quite a wad of cash off me in 2007.Technorati tags: book books reading amazon lovetoread nomoreblogs
Time To Buy Stock In Popcorn Companies
Time To Buy Stock In Popcorn Companiesby tristeroSkip Spidey 3. Now, this is what I call entertainment:
Top Bush administration officials lashed out at a pair of House Republicans at the White House yesterday after details about a contentious meeting between President Bush and GOP legislators were leaked to the media earlier this week. The confrontations are the latest indications of an intensifying rift between Bush and congressional Republicans.Reps. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) attracted the ire of White House officials for allegedly speaking to reporters about a Tuesday meeting between Bush and centrist Republicans on the Iraq war. Details of the contentious meeting first emerged Wednesday evening and attracted Page 1 headlines yesterday. Sources said that Dan Meyer, Bush’s liaison to the House, confronted LaHood while White House political strategist Karl Rove rebuked Kirk. It is unclear if LaHood or Kirk were the originial sources for the stories, but LaHood was quoted in one of the articles.Regardless, LaHood and Meyer got into a shouting match as emotions ran high and voices were raised yesterday morning in the White House while lawmakers were waiting to meet with first lady Laura Bush, according to two legislators who witnessed the exchange.
Top Bush administration officials lashed out at a pair of House Republicans at the White House yesterday after details about a contentious meeting between President Bush and GOP legislators were leaked to the media earlier this week. The confrontations are the latest indications of an intensifying rift between Bush and congressional Republicans.Reps. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) attracted the ire of White House officials for allegedly speaking to reporters about a Tuesday meeting between Bush and centrist Republicans on the Iraq war. Details of the contentious meeting first emerged Wednesday evening and attracted Page 1 headlines yesterday. Sources said that Dan Meyer, Bush’s liaison to the House, confronted LaHood while White House political strategist Karl Rove rebuked Kirk. It is unclear if LaHood or Kirk were the originial sources for the stories, but LaHood was quoted in one of the articles.Regardless, LaHood and Meyer got into a shouting match as emotions ran high and voices were raised yesterday morning in the White House while lawmakers were waiting to meet with first lady Laura Bush, according to two legislators who witnessed the exchange.
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